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如何看LendingClub未来发展?预期正面冲突不如被收购

很快,在曾经由新生企业主导的利基市场中,LendingClub就会卷入到与借贷行业巨头争夺主导地位的战争中。对LC来说,想要避免这场战争的最好办法便是寻找一个买家。

2006年,LendingClub由Renaud Laplanche成立。作为线上借贷市场的开拓者之一,LC在人人都可以成为贷方的P2P市场中负责撮合借贷双方之间的交易。

FT Partners今年的一份报告显示,LC一直在贷款发行总量上排名首位。

通过专用分析技术和定制化承销方式,LC可以评估借款人的各项数据,从而确定一个合适的利率水平。公司通过这种模式可以为借款人提供较传统银行利率更低的贷款。LC没有实体店铺,这也为公司节约了成本。

在LC八月份提供给监管机构中的文件中,LC表示自2007年至今,公司已经发放逾50亿美元的贷款。

摩根士丹利六月份报告显示,自2010年起美国市场贷款发放额每年都成倍增长,至2014年已达120亿美元。

但对LendingClub来说,目前的状况也不是一帆风顺。公司最近的股价大约在14美元,不仅远低于公司上市几天后创造的29.29的最高市价,更是比公司发行价15美元还要低。

行业观察者表示,线上借贷行业以及LC的业务模式对投资者来说都很有吸引力,导致了投资人的过度热情。

随着上个月公司IPO限售期的到期,公司股价面临巨大的下行压力。

对LC来说更大的忧患是,华尔街已经开始注意到人们对在线注册贷款的需求。为了加入线上借贷的大军,高盛集团上个月宣布其计划明年开始为个人和小企业提供贷款服务。

摩根大通首席执行官Jamie Dimon对这项业务也非常感兴趣。在4月份致股东的信中,Jamie表示“借贷业务现在广受人们关注。这项业务中公司可以为个人或小型企业快速提供贷款。并且他们认为通过使用大数据可以高效发放贷款从而提高信用承保。”

这些公司能够在几分钟之内就募集到贷款,而银行却需要好几周来完成。他还补充说,摩根大通在发展这方面业务时会全力以赴,从而为用户提供全面周到优质的服务。

James表示:“在必要时,公司愿意与其他公司进行合作”。

他还认为“摩根大通不仅会学习他们所做的,更是要开发出相应的策略来。”

行业观察者认为,用户在线借贷行业将会持续吸引新的公司参与到其中。

他们认为,LC已经向人们证明该项业务不仅完全透明,还可以达到证券交易委员会的监管要求。在这种情况下,如今的行业门槛已经比过往低了很多。

高盛集团的加入将会对整个行业带来振荡。

在低利率下,大型银行是时候考虑开拓新方式来提高资本收益率了。

观察员认为,在互联网上承销贷款的技术很容易被复制。

像Capital One Financial这类的银行和信用卡公司对于如何承保消费者信用十分熟悉,因此他们很容易进入消费者借贷市场,给LendingClub这样的公司带来威胁。有行业顾问认为,对于想要大举进入在线借贷行业的大型金融机构来说,LC是潜在收购目标。

他说,如果大型银行如摩根大通或者US Bancorp能收购LC,便能高效地与有志加入行业的其他机构竞争。

据报道称,LC公司和其风险投资人在公司上市之前一直在实行双轨营销的IPO过程,由此推测公司的管理权有可能会公开出售。

公司创始人Laplanche先前建立的企业级软件公司TripleHop Technologies在2005年6月被Oracle收购。高盛作为此次IPO的承销商,也保留了潜在收购的建议。

LendingClub在股价为14.10美元时,其市值大约为53亿美元。这不是一个小数,但是对于想要在快速增长的行业寻求立足的大型银行来说并不是遥不可及的。

LendingClub may soon be forced into battle with the lending industry's giants for primacy in a niche the upstarts once ruled, but it is a battle that the company might be better off avoiding by finding an acquirer.

LendingClub, founded by Renaud Laplanche in 2006, is one of the trailblazers in the online-lending market, orchestrating loan transactions between borrowers and lenders in what is known as peer-to-peer lending where anyone can become a lender.

LendingClub is now the largest peer-to-peer lender in terms of loans originated, according to a report by FT Partners from this year.

The company's model has allowed it to offer loans at lower rates than traditional banks through proprietary analytics technology and personalized underwriting that evaluates the borrower's data to determine an appropriate interest rate. LendingClub doesn't have a brick-and-mortar presence, which also keeps costs low.

The company has facilitated more than $5 billion in loan originations since 2007, according to an August regulatory filing.

A June Morgan Stanley research report stated that marketplace loan origination in the United States has doubled every year since 2010, to $12 billion in 2014.

But trouble is brewing for LendingClub. Its stock is trading below its December initial public offering price of $15 at a little more than $14, well below a high of $29.29 reached just days after the company went public.

The online-lending industry and LendingClub's business model were exciting to investors and they became overly enthusiastic, according to one industry watcher.

Reality set in just as LendingClub's IPO lockup expired last month, resulting in strong downward pressure.

A bigger concern for LendingClub is that Wall Street has taken notice of Main Street's demand for online-administered loans. In an attempt to crash the online-lending party, Goldman Sachs Group said last month that it plans to begin administering small loans to individuals and small companies next year.

JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon is also interested in the business, stating in his annual letter to shareholders in April that "the ones you read about most are in the lending business, whereby the firms can lend to individuals and small businesses very quickly and -- these entities believe -- effectively by using big data to enhance credit underwriting."

These companies "can make loans in minutes, which might take banks weeks," he wrote, adding that JPMorgan Chase is "going to work hard" to make its services "as seamless and competitive as theirs."

The company is also "completely comfortable with partnering where it makes sense," Dimon wrote.

JPMorgan Chase will "learn what they are doing and develop strategies accordingly," he wrote.

The online-consumer-lending sector will continue to draw new participants, the industry observer said.

The barriers to entry are much lower than they used to be now that LendingClub has proven that the business can be transparent and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the observer said.

Goldman Sachs is going to shake things up in the sector, the observer said.

Amid low interest rates, it would make sense for larger banks to come up with new ways to earn yield on their capital.

The technology to underwrite loans on the Internet is easy to replicate, the observer said.

Banks such as Capital One Financial as well as credit card companies know how to underwrite consumer credit and therefore could easily enter the consumer-lending sector and create more competition for companies such as LendingClub. LendingClub could be an acquisition target for large financial institutions looking to make a substantial splash into the online lending industry, an industry consultant said.

Larger banks such as JPMorgan Chase or US Bancorp, could acquire LendingClub to more efficiently compete with other institutions interested in entering the sector, he said.

LendingClub management may be open to a sale because the company and its venture capital backers were reportedly running a dual-track sale/IPO process before it went public.

Founder Laplanche previously established TripleHop Technologies, an enterprise software company that was acquired by Oracle in June 2005. Goldman Sachs, which served as underwriter on the IPO, was also retained to advise on a potential sale.

At its share price of about $14.10, LendingClub's market capitalization is about $5.3 billion. That is a significant figure but not out of reach for a big bank seeking a quick foothold in a growing business.


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