最有看点的互联网金融门户

传统金融的互联网化全新的互联网金融模式国际资讯

贷款证券化竞相出现 P2P要跻身全球主流金融市场了吗?

传统金融的互联网化全新的互联网金融模式国际资讯

贷款证券化竞相出现 P2P要跻身全球主流金融市场了吗?

The big rebundling of peer-to-peer finance

本周,P2P借贷平台Zopa宣布对无担保消费贷款进行证券化,这在欧洲尚属首次。实际上,本次证券化涉及的贷款共有27137笔,价值1.38亿欧元(1.8亿美元),这些证券公开市场的投资者现在已经可以购买。网贷平台Funding Circle在今年早些时候也有类似行动,把价值1.3亿欧元(1.7亿美元)的小企业贷款证券化,并将其命名为"SBOLT 2016-1 DAC"。

为什么要关注这些信息那?

因为这应该算是P2P金融"重新打包"进入全球金融市场的最新动态了。

在过去的十年中,处在拓荒阶段的金融科技不断发展成熟,为消费者提供了一系列发展完善的选择,来替代低收益的银行储蓄账户。除了个人贷款和中小企业贷款,你还可以在Landbay上进行现金抵押,在LendInvest上支持房地产开发,通过Market Invoice提供发票融资,甚至通过Kiva向世界各地为维持生计而耕种的农民发放小额贷款。

这些贷款平台受监管、相对透明、可追踪,并且比大多数网上银行和经纪公司都更容易使用。这些平台给出的利息高达7%,大量资金流入这些平台也就不足为奇了,仅在英国就有70多亿欧元( 91亿美元)。

然而,整个金融科技行业在全球金融市场体系中仍是沧海一粟。英国高街各大银行的中小企业和个人未偿还就有约5亿欧元(65.2亿美元),有上万亿的未偿还抵押贷款和政府贷款。但由于债券收益处在历史低位,股票估值远超历史平均水平,其他所有选项都有风险,因此有大批资金在寻求高回报率的投资项目。

在雷雨天气,雷击之前都会有突进导闪,即电离过的一股空气下行至地面。同时,带电荷的电子流从高大的建筑物和树木向上伸展。一旦它们接触--嘭,几十亿伏特的电压释放了。我认为这就是P2P金融的未来。

所以说,如今P2P平台纷纷开始向上伸展,重视机构投资者,降低"大众"的重要性。一些人已经为英国商业银行(或者说一家前瞻性的银行或对冲基金)作担保,以稳固其市场基础。 Obillex已经把发票贴现变成了可在交易所买卖的工具。网贷平台Funding Circle已经推出了the SME Income Fund,这是一家上市了的投资信托机构,其支持者包括Invesco和BlackRock

全球资本市场与金融科技平台大规模连接,为供给侧带来无上限的资金流,只是一个时间问题。

关于这一点,最近有些争议。在美国,一些借贷平台受到批评,因为这些平台允许机构投资者自行挑选贷款。今年早些时候,P2P网络助学贷款提供商SoFi对一部分贷款进行打包再融资时,不得不提高回报。这个市场在发展过程中必然会有试验,较弱的平台可能无法扩大规模,但市场资金充裕、点对点金融的需求不断增加,这是不可逆转的趋势。

但是,如果这种产品可以隐晦地被称为套餐包裹(希望不是金融危机前习惯的重复),由穆迪公司评级,并出售给数以百计的养老基金,那它还是P2P的吗?这一点重要吗?

其他类型的在线市场也有过类似情况。著名的eBay以开始是消费者购买并相互出售收藏品的地方,但今天eBay上80%的出售品都是新的,大多数交易都是企业对客户(B2C)的交易。新产品涌入并没有消灭点对点交易,但它带来了竞争,协调并降低了大多数产品的价格。

我认为金融市场也会出现这种情况。除了一定程度的规模和可预见性,再没有什么别的理由区别对待在线平台了。只要有几个大型基金将小额资金分配到点对点金融空间,点对点金融市场就会变得跟别的借贷市场一样,跟正被其取代的传统机构一样。

随着供给侧资金供应逐渐充足,P2P金融的市场份额逐渐扩大,其收益以及借款人的利率都自然会下降,点对点金融市场的回报与一般市场回报间的差距将逐渐缩小。这一变化需要很长时间,在这段时间内还有钱可赚。

这种情形不止在金融服务圈能见到。我们会看到一系列新的资产类别,包括买下公寓开Airbnb的不动产基金,在Appear Here上市的零售店面业主,为Uber的司机买车的套利基金等,其中一些,在成为主流的几年前,能够提供特别高的收益。对那些准备好赌一把的资本经理人来说,这里机会无穷。

 

This week, peer-to-peer lending platform Zopa announced Europe's first securitization of unsecured consumer loans. Effectively, they have bundled up 27,137 loans worth €138 million ($180 million), which public markets investors can now go and buy. Funding Circle did something similar earlier in the year, rolling €130 million ($170 million) of small business loans into the delightfully-named "SBOLT 2016-1 DAC".

Why is this interesting? Because it's the latest step in the "rebundling" of peer-to-peer finance into the global capital markets.

Over the past decade, the fintech Wild West has matured into a grown-up set of options for consumers looking for alternatives to low-yield bank savings accounts. In addition to personal and SME loans, you can fund mortgages through Landbay, back real-estate developments through LendInvest, provide invoice finance through Market Invoice or even make micro-loans to subsistence farmers around the world through Kiva.

These providers are regulated, relatively transparent, can point to a track-record, and are much more user-friendly than most online banks and brokers. With interest of up to 7 percent on offer, it's no surprise that money has flowed into their platforms? - ?over ?7 billion ($9.1 billion) in the UK alone.

The whole sector remains a tiny speck in the scheme of the markets. The big UK high street banks alone have about ?500 billion ($652 billion) of SME and personal loans outstanding, and there are trillions more in mortgages and government debt. But with bond yields at historic lows, equity valuations far above historic averages, and everything else looking risky, there is a wave of capital out there looking for returns.

During a thunderstorm, a lightning strike is preceded by a leader, a channel of ionised air that snakes slowly down to the ground. At the same time, charged streamers stretch upwards from tall buildings and trees. Once they connect- bam, a billion volts is unleashed. I think that's what we're about to see in peer-to-peer finance.

The platforms are reaching upwards, reducing the importance of 'the crowd' as they court institutional investors. Several players have secured the British Business Bank or a forward-thinking bank or hedge fund to cornerstone their marketplace. Obillex has turned invoice discounting into an exchange-tradeable instrument. Funding Circle has launched the SME Income Fund, a listed investment trust with backers including Invesco and BlackRock. Some of these have attracted credit ratings and analyst coverage.

It's only a matter of time before the global capital markets connect with fintech platforms in a major way, bringing an effectively unlimited flow of capital on the supply side.

We've seen some controversy around this recently. In the US, several lending platforms have been criticized for allowing institutional investors to cherry-pick certain loans. Peer-to-peer student loans provider SoFi had to increase the returns on offer when it tried to package up and refinance a tranche of loans earlier this year. There will be experimentation, and weaker platforms may fail to scale, but a cash-rich market and increasing demand for peer-to-peer makes this an inevitable trend.

But if it can be bundled up into obscurely-named packages (hopefully not a repeat of pre-financial crisis habits), rated by Moody's, and sold to hundreds of pension funds, is it still peer-to-peer? And does it matter?

This has happened before with other types of online marketplace. eBay famously started as a place for consumers to buy and sell collectables from one another, but these days 80 percent of items are new and most transactions are B2C. That influx didn't kill off peer-to-peer, but it did harmonize and bring down prices for most products as competition flooded in.

I expect we'll see the same in finance. Past a certain level of scale and predictability, there's little reason to treat online platforms differently. It only takes a few large funds to make small allocations to the peer-to-peer space for those marketplaces to start looking just like any other sort of lending, including the traditional players they are replacing.

With the supply side fully-funded and peer-to-peer continuing to take market share, yields? - ?and the interest rates available to borrowers ?- ?will naturally fall over time, closing the gap with general market returns. This will happen over quite a long period of time, and there's money to be made in the meantime.

This will play out across more than just financial services. From real-estate funds buying flats to let on Airbnb to retail space owners listing shops on Appear Here and hedge funds buying fleets of cars for Uber drivers, we're going to see a whole range of new asset classes around, some offering exceptional returns for some years until they too become mainstream. There's a ton of opportunity for managers of capital who are prepared to make some bets on the future.

GELP

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