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比特币价格再创新高,中国市场已经复苏?

数字货币比特币因表现出色,再次收获众多目光。其价格在上月增长了近65%,在本周首次突破了2,000美元的关键关口。过去,比特币也曾多次有过出众的表现,但从未像今天这般惊人。

那么币价上涨背后的推动力是什么呢?这很难说得清,因为比特币是无法预测的,不过以下几个因素可能是造成币价上涨的原因:

1. 全世界对数字货币需求量提高

比特币在达到2,000美元里程碑时,大量的投资者开始呼吁进入加密货币领域。加密货币一度被视为怪人和计算机极客的聚集区,而如今却成为了主流投资者的新宠,他们认为这是一种新的资产种类,为了获得这一资产还创建了数百万美元的对冲基金。

与此同时,其他人认为数字货币是一种类似黄金的资产,在政权不稳定时能够保值。近期巴西和美国的政治动荡导致了美元下滑,很可能对近期币价的上涨起到了推动作用。

另外,比特币也很可能因以太坊(Ethereum)和莱特币(LTC)等数字货币的价格增长中间接获利。购买这些货币可以使用美元或其他传统货币,但用比特币(它是最容易使用的数字货币)始终更加方便。也就是说,有越来越多的人买入比特币作为投资其它加密货币的工具。

2. 日本和中国

4月初,日本监管部门推出新规,不再将比特币视为一种违法货币,而是将其纳入银行系统的一部分。这一改变导致该国投资者对比特币的交易活动爆发,对其价格的正面影响也成为了可预测的事实。

而在中国,政府与比特币始终有着一段爱恨情仇,似乎有关部门再次表现出了更高的容忍度。据CNBC报道,分析师指出了美国比特币交易价格和中国交易价格价格差距正在缩小,相比之下,在中国,与比特币相关的投资的风险更低:

换句话说,是亚洲投资量的增加造成了币价的上涨。

3. 炒作

如果你对比特币有一些了解,你就会知道这一货币可能出现投机性崩溃。通常在价格崩溃之前会有新闻媒体报道比特币的价值,这就创造了一个炒作周期,吸引了主流投资者来拉高价格。

似乎我们目前就处在炒作周期内。社交媒体充斥着加密货币资产价格飞涨的消息。而今年的Consensus会议似乎是最引人注目的一场活动,IBM和微软等行业巨头都出现在了参会名单中。

已经有充足的理由可以撑起这场炒作——不仅仅是因为数字货币和区块链技术已经走向主流,还是出于谨慎投资的考虑。正如过去的炒作周期一样,为比特币叫好的总是占大多数。这是因为很少有人真正理解数字货币,而真正理解数字货币的人通常都是大户,因此持怀疑论者总是存币不足。

The digital currency bitcoin is on another remarkable run, soaring nearly 65% in the last month, and smashing the symbolic $2,000 mark for the first time ever this week. Bitcoin has gone on tears in the past, but never quite like this.

So what's behind the latest bull run? It's hard to say for sure, since bitcoin is so unpredictable, but here are three factors that are contributing to bitcoin's boom:

1. The Worldwide Demand for Digital Currency

The $2,000 bitcoin milestone comes amid a larger trend of investors clamoring for crypto-currency of all sorts. While digital money was once seen as the province of cranks and computers geeks, it's now so mainstream that investors see it as a new asset class and are creating hundred million dollar hedge funds to acquire it.

Meanwhile, others see digital currencies as an asset like gold, which can hold its value amid times of government instability. Recent political upheaval in Brazil and the United States, which led to drops in the dollar and the real, may have contributed to the recent uptick in bitcoin buying.

Finally, bitcoin may be benefiting indirectly from a recent explosion in the value of other digital currencies like Lumens, Ethereum and Litecoin. While it's possible to buy these currencies with dollars or other traditional currencies, it's often simpler to use bitcoins (which is the easiest digital currency to acquire) to buy them. In other words, more people may be buying bitcoin as a vehicle to invest in more exotic currencies.

2. Japan and China

At the start of April, regulators in Japan introduced new rules that treated bitcoin less like an outlaw currency and more as a part of the banking system. That change led to a burst of trading activity in the country investors rushed to swap yen for bitcoin. The effect on price has been predicable.

And in China, where the authorities have long had a love-hate relation with bitcoin, it appears the country is growing more tolerant once again. As CNBC reported, analysts are pointing to a big drop in the difference in bitcoin prices between U.S. and Chinese exchanges. This suggests bitcoin-related investments in China are less risky:

In other words, a whole lot of Asian investment is causing bitcoin to soar.

3. Hype and Hoopla

If you've followed bitcoin for a while, you know the currency is prone to spectacular crashes. The crashes followed flurries of press reports about the value of bitcoin, which created a hype cycle, and in turn drew the attention of mainstream investors who helped inflate the price.

It sure feels like we're in the midst of a hype cycle now. Social media is buzzing about the incredible surge in the value of crypto-currency assets. And this year's edition of Consensus, a three-day trade show in New York, promises to be the splashiest yet with big names like IBM and Microsoft appearing alongside a long list of venture capital firms.

There a lot of good reasons for the hype—not least because digital currency and blockchain technology (an online ledger system that relies on multiple computers) has gone mainstream—but also reasons for caution. As with past hype cycles, there are far more people cheering for bitcoin than against it. This is partly because there are few people who truly understand digital currency, and most of those who do own a large amount of it, so skeptics are in short supply.


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