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诺奖得主罗伯特·席勒:比特币不能通过现实世界货币供应来估价

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诺奖得主罗伯特·席勒:比特币不能通过现实世界货币供应来估价

近日在接受CNBC采访时,诺贝尔经济学奖获得者罗伯特·席勒(Robert Shiller)表示,没有明确的方法可以对比特币进行估价。

这种评论是值得注意的,尤其是来自一位传奇经济学家之口,席勒在1987年股市崩盘和2008年房地产泡沫期间的工作获得了长期的信誉。他于2013年10月份获得了诺贝尔经济学奖。

席勒在采访中表示,要想挂钩比特币的基础价格是非常困难的,他表示:

“你只能通过现实世界货币供应的价值为比特币提供一种上限。但是这种上限是非常大的,可以是0到任何数字。”

同样的情绪也反映在席勒最近为《纽约时报》撰写的文章中,他写道:

“比特币市值已经超过了2750亿美元,我们要如何才能开始评估比特币的基本价值?任何尝试很快就会听起来很愚蠢。”

比特币价格自今年初以来已经连续暴涨,从一月份的800美元攀升到了近20000美元的新记录。

席勒引用了一个现象,这也许可以解释如此惊人的市场反弹背后的原因。他说,根据神经学家的说法,当我们在一个充满压力、模棱两可的环境中做出选择时,我们大脑的工作方式是不同的。

“你也许认为受过教育的人会把决策性问题转换成一些精确的东西…但大脑似乎并没有这么做。”

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller believes there's no clear way to put a price on bitcoin.

"I think the value of bitcoin is exceptionally ambiguous," he told CNBC today.

The comment is perhaps notable in that it comes from a legendary economist who gained long-term credibility following his work around the 1987 stock market crash and the housing bubble in 2008. He received the Nobel Prize in Economics in October 2013.

Yet speaking to the network, Shiller argued that it's difficult to peg the fundamental price of bitcoin, remarking:

"You just put an upper bound on [bitcoin] with the value of the world's money supply. But that upper bound is awfully big. So it can be anywhere between zero and there."

That same sentiment was reflected in Shiller's recent op-ed article for The New York Times, in which he wrote: "How can we even start estimating the fundamental value of bitcoin, with its astonishing market value of more than $275 billion. Any attempt will soon sound silly."

Bitcoin's price has surged in value since the beginning the year, climbing from $800 last January to a new record of almost $20,000 this weekend, according to CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index.

Shiller cited a phenomenon that may explain the reasons behind such a phenomenal market rally. According to neuroscientists, he said, our brains work differently when making choices in a stressful, ambiguous environment.

"You might think people who are educated will transform the decision problem into something precise ... But it doesn't seem like the brain is doing that," Shiller told CNBC.


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