最有看点的互联网金融门户

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Lend Academy:2018年美国网贷行业预测

排名前25的银行中将有5家银行推出自己的在线贷款平台

银行已经意识到,如果想提供成功的贷款产品,就必须拥有一个在线平台。因此我认为,许多大型银行将在2018年推出自己的在线贷款平台。一些银行可能会选择与金融科技企业合作,而更多地可能会直接在内部设立专门的在线贷款部门。消费贷款、小型企业贷款和房地产贷款将成为在线借贷的首选产品类型。

两项新立法将通过,助力整个行业发展

2017年,美国在金融科技监管方面并没有什么大动作。按照现有情况分析,货币监理局(OCC)的金融科技章程可能仍将处于停滞状态。不过我认为,2018年应该会有两项有关在线借贷的法案得到通过——第一个是由国会议员McHenry(R-NC)和Meeks(D-NY)提出的Madden修正案,第二个是另一位名叫McHenry的议员提出的条例草案,后者将帮助国税局实现现代化,并创建一个查询税务记录的API。

前5名(非银行)在线贷款平台之一将被收购

去年我曾经说过,一个主要贷款平台会被收购,而那只是一个泛泛的预测。而今年我认为,被收购的平台将会是Lending Club、SoFi、Prosper、OnDeck或Avant中的一个。我没有具体的内幕消息,但是正如我之前所说的那样,其实2017年相关传言就已经将目标锁定在了这几个平台之上。

某个主要贷款平台将受到网络攻击

过去一年,多个大公司遭受了网络攻击。所以,网贷平台恐怕也难逃此劫。我预测2018年会有一个主要贷款平台遭受攻击,但是我同样希望这个平台能够及时有效地应对这个紧急事件,将风险和损害降低到最低。

科技巨头巩固在线贷款的地位

亚马逊、PayPal和Square都已经开始向他们庞大的客户群推出各种在线借贷产品——Square已经开始试点消费贷款计划,PayPal去年收购了Swift Financial,以提高他们在小企业贷款方面的地位,而亚马逊的小企业贷款发放量也已经在去年突破30亿美元。而这些公司将在2018年继续扩大在线贷款的业务。

2018年是产品线扩张的一年

无论是消费贷款、小企业借贷还是房地产贷款,平台成功的关键因素之一就是要提供多种产品。过去一年,包括Lending Club、SoFi和其他几家公司都在积极扩充产品线,我相信这些机构在2018年应该还会推出更多重大举措。

消息应用程序开始融入在线贷款

如今,P2P支付已经被成功融合到了各类消息应用程序中,比如 Facebook Messenger现在与PayPal集成进行支付,Venmo也和Zelle上推出了P2P支付。所以说,通过这个平台提供贷款只是时间问题。其实这种猜想已经在中国市场得到了实现,而我希望未来一年美国的金融科技企业也能做出相关尝试。

最后,我还想谈谈IPO。之前有媒体报道称,Funding Circle可能准备于今年晚些时候上市。我认为,Funding Circle上市并不会就此带来金融科技企业上市大潮,但是2018年应该也至少有两家网贷平台会选择上市。

Five top 25 banks will launch their own online lending platforms

Banks have realized that if you want to provide successful loan products today you need to have an online presence. I think we will see many large banks launch their own online lending platforms in 2018. Some will be the result of partnerships with fintech platforms but many will be built through internal efforts. Online lending for consumer, small business and real estate is becoming an online-first consideration and 2018 will be a tipping point for banks in this area.

Two new pieces of legislation will be passed that will benefit the industry

Not much happened on the regulatory front in 2017. As I said above the OCC Fintech Charter is in a holding pattern. While predicting legislative success in Washington these days may be a fool’s errand I think we will get two pieces of legislation passed in 2018. The first one will be the Madden fix by Congressmen McHenry (R-NC) and Meeks (D-NY) and the second will be another bipartisan McHenry bill, this time introduced with Senator Booker (D-NJ), that will help modernize the IRS with the creation of an API for inquiring on tax records.

One of the top five (non-bank) online lending platforms will be acquired

So, last year I said that one of the major lending platforms will be acquired and in reality that was an easy prediction. This year I am going to name names. I think one of the following five platforms will be acquired in 2018: Lending Club, SoFi, Prosper, OnDeck or Avant. I have no concrete inside information although as I said above there have been rumors swirling in 2017 over acquisition targets.

A major lending platform will get hit with a cyber attack

Here is the one prediction where I really hope I am wrong. We have had a good run so far but with cyber attacks hitting some of the biggest names in business there is no reason to think online lending platforms will remain unscathed. I think it happens in 2018. I just hope the platform that gets hit deals with it quickly and transparently and the damage is limited.

The tech giants consolidate their positions in online lending

Amazon, PayPal and Square have all started to roll out various online lending offerings to their huge customer bases. In 2018 they will consolidate their position in the space. Square has already started piloting a consumer lending program, PayPal acquired Swift Financial last year to boost their position in small business lending and Amazon, we learned, passed $3 billion in small business loans last year. These companies will continue to expand their footprint in online lending in 2018.

2018 is the year of product line expansion

Whether we are looking at consumer, small business or real estate one of the keys to success will be to have multiple product offerings. We have seen some expansion of product lines at Lending Club, SoFi and a couple of other companies but I think we will see significant moves in this area in 2018.

Messaging apps start to get integrated into online lending

I am going out on a bit of a limb with this one. We have started to see P2P payments incorporated into messaging apps. Facebook Messenger now integrates with PayPal for payments, Apple launched P2P Payments in their latest version of iOS, Venmo and Zelle both are looking more like messaging apps. It is only a matter of time that one of these services starts to offer loans. This has been happening in China for years and I think something launches in beta in the US in 2018.

My bonus prediction is around IPOs. We have just heard about Funding Circle’s intention to possibly go public later this year and while I don’t think this will cause the floodgates to open I think we will see at least two more online lenders go public in 2018 for a total of three.


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