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直击达沃斯:顶尖银行学家警示金融稳定性稳中藏险

全新的互联网金融模式国际资讯监管与政策

直击达沃斯:顶尖银行学家警示金融稳定性稳中藏险

距上一场全球性金融危机已过十年,利率仍保持触底水平,然而各央行却几乎未考虑将受量化宽松政策支持的资产负债恢复至危机前水平。

达沃斯论坛上时有全球发展强劲之声。然而M&G投资首席执行官Anne Richards却称,守护金融稳定性机构将难以应付另一场危机。

在于瑞士滑雪胜地达沃斯举行的年度全球精英世界经济论坛上,Richards说道:"我们目前掌握的应急应对工具非常之少。"她预测危机可能发生在"某个所有人都未关注的地方",并强调援引P2P借贷作为例证。

巴克莱银行首席执行官Jes Staley也在会上表示,目前金融状况与危机爆发前相似。Staley称他认为较之十年前,银行对金融稳定性的威胁有所减少,但他仍警示目前良性状况可能不会持久。

Staley说道:"股市达到高点,而动荡性却处在低位,那么资本市场就存在某种问题。这并不是项可持续的计划。"

花旗集团总裁Michael Corbat赞同了Staley的忧虑,他补充道资产价格持续上涨使投资者对惯常市场波动变得"麻木""矛盾"。

Corbat说道:"下轮经济危机到来时,如果我们同时释放压力, 危机可能会更加猛烈。并且危机一定会爆发。"

虽非所有,但许多经济学家与监管方认为,资本准备金提高,并定期进行压力测试,如今全球银行体系应对潜在冲击的弹性更强。然而金融界却日益担忧体系其他部分风险正在累积。

哈佛大学经济学家、全球金融危机权威Ken Rogoff表示,中国债务堆积"具备潜在金融危机特点",与前首相戈登·布朗及国际清算银行负责人Claudio Borio的警示类似。

Rogoff还提醒,尝试刺激增长十年,利率上升,可能导致股市崩盘,也可能影响艺术品与比特币等资产价格。

Rogoff说道:"想象股价崩盘并不困难。我认为股价是以高增长低利率为基础的。"

此前,富裕国家联盟经合组织负责人于昨日警示称某些影子银行的做法让他想起了危机前的繁荣。

William White对Telegraph说道:"目前所有市场指标与雷曼危机爆发前非常相似,但上次危机的教训似乎已被遗忘。"

A decade on from the start of the last global financial crisis interest rates remain at rock-bottom levels, while central banks have barely considered returning balance sheets bloated by quantitative easing to pre-crash levels.

Amid the Davos chatter of strong global growth, Anne Richards, chief executive of M&G Investments, said that the custodians of financial stability will struggle to deal with another crash.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum, the annual gathering of the global elite in the Swiss ski resort, she said: “We have far fewer tools to deal with any event that happens.” Richards predicted an upset could occur “somewhere where none of us are looking”, and highlighted peer-to-peer lending as an example.

Current financial conditions have echoes of the pre-crisis era, according to Jes Staley, chief executive of Barclays, speaking at the same event. While he said he believes banks are much less of a threat to stability than a decade ago, he warned that current benign conditions may not last.

“There’s something out there in the capital markets, given that equity markets are at an all-time high, volatility is at an all-time low,” he said. “That’s not a sustainable proposition.”

Citigroup boss Michael Corbat echoed his concerns, adding that continued asset price rises have given investors a “numbness” and “ambivalence” to usually market-moving events.

“When the next turn comes – and it will come – it’s likely to be more violent than it would otherwise be if we let some pressure off along the way,” Corbat said.

Many economists and regulators – although not all – believe the global banking system is now more resilient to potential shocks, with higher capital requirements and regular stress testing. Yet concerns are growing across the financial community that risks are building up in other parts of the system.

Ken Rogoff, a Harvard economist and global authority on financial crises, said that debt build-ups in China “have a lot of the characteristics of a financial crisis coming up”, echoing warnings from figures like former Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Claudio Borio, head of the Bank for International Settlements.

Rogoff also warned that rising interest rates after a decade of trying to stimulate growth could see a crash in stock markets – and could impact the prices of assets as diverse as fine art and bitcoin.

He said: “It is not hard to imagine a stock price collapse. I think the stock prices are built on the high growth but very much the low interest rates.”

The warnings come after the head of the review board of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the club of richer nations, yesterday warned that some shadow banking practices remind him of the pre-crash boom.

William White told the Telegraph: “All the market indicators right now look very similar to what we saw before the Lehman crisis, but the lesson has somehow been forgotten.”


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