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区块链国际资讯

狂热背后:去年46%的区块链项目已经悄然失败

目前,人们认为大多数ICO项目都会失败,无论其处于募资阶段还是已经到了项目落地阶段。虽然大多数可疑的ICO项目都不会主动宣告退出,但是经过对去年推出的项目的系统性调查我们可以看到,其实这其中46%的项目已经失败,而他们募集的资金总额已经超过了1.04亿美元。

ICO比你想象的更危险

只要有足够的时间,无论是稳定发展的机构还是流行的众筹项目都有衰败的可能。没有人期望2017年的ICO项目能够长久,然而其走向失败速度之快却让我们大跌眼镜。ICO项目跟踪网站Tokendata列出了去年推出的902个项目,其中142个在募资阶段宣告失败,有276个由于各种各样的原因也不了了之,要么是跑路要么就是没了消息。这就意味着去年诞生的项目中,46%已经失败。

实际上,仍在正常推进的项目数量可能更低。至少有113个项目被定义为“半失败”状态——项目团队不再与社区公开交流或者其社区规模实在太小证明该项目不太可能成功。这就意味着在去年,59%的项目已经确认失败或者正在走向失败。

数字墓地

坐在位置上不停地浏览900个ICO项目是一件十分痛苦的事。废弃的推特账户、空无一人的电报群组、不再受托管的网站,以及无人问津的社区,这些都是常有的事。这就好像一个数字墓地,像风滚草一样越滚越大,预示着2017年的收益成了项目方跑路的工具。大多数项目什么都没有得到;有些拿到了几千美元;也有部分募集超过1000万美元。但它们却有着同样的结局:没有可行产品、没有测试版,更没有为去中心化的网络以及为人类的发展进步做出贡献。

对于大部分失败的ICO来说,它们的命运是注定的。Clitcoin和Zero Traffic这类项目的失败是可以预见的。有些募资失败的项目甚至在今年卷土重来,希望能将2017年的失败看作是一场实验。经过对这类失败项目的发源地的研究可以看出,发展中国家,尤其是来自非洲的项目都被高估了。尽管如此,每个大国和大洲都曾出现失败项目。

汲取的教训

去年失败的这531个项目从一开始就可以看出是很粗糙的。在大多数情况下,投资者都能够发现一些蛛丝马迹并且选择退出。但并不是所有人都能全身而退:这些项目募集资金高达2.33亿美元。市场狂热程度丝毫不减,因此我们有理由相信,与去年相比,今年的项目也很难做出更好的成绩。回报率降低,竞争更加激烈,新项目不停涌现,这些因素将导致2018年加密货币投资风险大大提高。

It has always been assumed that a large number of ICOs will fail, be it at the fundraising stage or when it comes to delivering the actual project. It’s hard to settle on a precise figure, however, as most dubious ICOs don’t exit scam: they slowly tiptoe away, like a sneak thief rather than a smash-and-grab robber. Having completed an extensive study into last year’s crowdsales, news.Bitcoin.com can report that 46% of them are effectively dead already – despite raising over $104 million.

ICOs Are Even Riskier Than You Think

Given enough time, everything withers and dies, from the most robust institutions to the most popular crowdsales. No one expected all of 2017’s ICOs to last the course. The pace at which they’ve withered and died may come as a surprise though. Tokendata, one of the more comprehensive ICO trackers, lists 902 crowdsales which took place last year. Of these, 142 failed at the funding stage and a further 276 have since failed, either due to taking the money and running, or slowly fading into obscurity. This means that 46% of last year’s ICOs have already failed.

The number of ICOs that are still a going concern is actually even lower. An additional 113 ICOs can be classified as “semi-failed”, either because their team has stopped communicating on social media, or because their community is so small as to mean the project has no chance of success. This means that 59% of last year’s crowdsales are either confirmed failures or failures-in-the-making.

A Digital Graveyard of Broken Promises

Trawling through 900 ICOs in one sitting is a deeply depressing experience, news.Bitcoin.com can report. Abandoned Twitter accounts, empty Telegram groups, websites no longer hosted, and communities no longer tended are par for the course. A digital graveyard, complete with metaphorical tumbleweed, characterizes the crop of 2017 that decided to take the money and run. Many raised zero; some raised a couple of thousand dollars; and a handful raised over $10 million. In each case, the end result was the same though: no MVP, no alpha release, and no contribution to the decentralized web for the betterment of humanity.

Many of the dead ICOs were doomed from the start. It will come as no surprise to learn that projects such as Clitcoin, Neverdie, and Zero Traffic didn’t make it. (Update: Neverdie has since been in touch to claim that reports of its demise are premature.) Some, which fell flat at the fundraising stage, are doing it all over again this year and hoping that 2017’s failure can be written off as a trial run. Freight trucking platform Doft is one such example. Looking at the countries of origin for failed ICOs shows that developing nations – and an entire continent in the case of Africa – are over-represented. Nevertheless, every major country and continent features in the list of shame.

Lessons Learned

Many of the 531 ICOs that have failed or are failing from last year looked sketchy from the very start. In most cases, investors were able to spot the signs and steer clear. Not everyone escaped unscathed though: these projects still raised $233 million between them. With ICO mania showing no signs of abating, there’s no reason to expect this year’s crowdsales to fare any better. Thanks to diminished returns, increased competition, and a never-ending stream of opportunistic ICOs, crypto investing in 2018 is riskier than ever.


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