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摩根史丹利:加密货币获能协助化解金融危机

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)研究者在新报告中做出预测,有一天央行将会通过政府支持的加密货币来解决金融危机带来的风险。

这份报告提到央行如何用国家支持的加密货币实现货币供应的有效管理,认为这项技术能够允许央行直接部署货币政策而不用依赖于金融机构等中介,从而执行负利率政策。

摩根士丹利战略分析师Sheena Sha说:

从理论上来说,100%数字化的货币系统可能实现更低的负利率。这一点对部分央行来说极具吸引力。

这是有可能的,Shah和她的团队表示。原因是依托这项技术,央行能够在整个流通货币供应流程中即时执行其政策,而通过实物现金是无法做到这一点的。

报告指出:

自由流通的纸币和硬币(现金)限制了央行执行负存款利率的能力。而数字版本的现金理论上可以针对在所有经济中流通的货币实施负利率。

届时,各国央行将不得不直接向货币用户实施货币政策,大幅降低金融体系的杠杆率(负债产权比率),并减缓GDP的增长。

然而,尽管这一系统在实施央行政策方面具有提高效率的优势,但可能会导致大量的资本流入去中心化的加密货币——因为现金将不再是一个避风港。

一旦有消息称央行将开始执行负利率政策(在负利率情况下银行将钱存入央行会出现缩水,而且需要支付手续费),人们就可能选择比特币等去中心化的加密货币来进行财产保值。

Central banks will one day use government-backed cryptocurrencies to rapidly address the risks of future financial crises, researchers at Morgan Stanley predicted in a new report.

The report, which examines how central banks could use state-sponsored cryptocurrencies to more effectively govern their monetary supplies, theorizes that this technology would allow central banks take negative interest rates to historic levels by imposing policies directly on the monetary supply instead of through intermediaries such as financial institutions.

“Theoretically, a monetary system that is 100% digital may enable deeper negative rates,” a Morgan Stanley team lead by strategist Sheena Sha wrote in the report, according to Business Insider. “This appeals to certain central banks.”

This would be possible, Shah and her team said, because the central bank would have the ability to simultaneously enact its policies across the entire circulating monetary supply, which it cannot do with physical cash.

From the report:

“Freely circulating paper notes and coins (cash) limits the ability of the central banks to force negative deposit rates. A digital version of cash could theoretically allow negative deposit rates to be charged on all money in circulation within any economy.”

“Central banks would then have to go direct to currency users to implement monetary policy, reducing leverage in the system significantly and cutting GDP growth,” the Morgan Stanley researchers added.

But while such a system would greatly increase the efficiency of implementing central bank policies, one imagines that — because cash would no longer be available as a safe harbor — it could also lead to massive capital outflows to decentralized cryptocurrencies.

Once rumors begin to circulate that a bank is set to begin imposing a negative interest rate — a policy that effectively forces people to pay a fee to hold the currency — people could turn to bitcoin or other decentralized cryptocurrencies to secure their wealth, though this decision would likely hinge on the volatility of those assets.


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