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未来30年黄金产业将迎来大发展,金融科技成为推动因素之一

传统金融的互联网化国际资讯

未来30年黄金产业将迎来大发展,金融科技成为推动因素之一

近日,世界黄金协会(World Gold Council)发布了一份名为《黄金2048:黄金未来30年前景》的报告,全球顶尖经济学家和黄金行业引领者汇聚一堂,共同探讨世界人口情况、技术、经济、政治和社会发展等因素对黄金市场产生的影响。

尽管这篇报告很长,我还是强烈推荐大家阅读一番。下面我将带您从投资的角度简单了解其中的核心观点。

一、新兴市场中产阶级不断扩张

报告中说,未来30年内,人口因素对全球经济的影响会越来越大。

接下去的25年,中国和印度的中产阶级不断扩张,将对黄金市场的发展产生巨大影响。

最近有一些报告预计,未来17年里,亚洲每年有1.7亿人成为中产阶级。

印度作为全球最大黄金消费国,在未来数十年内将成为发展速度最快的经济体。印度完成政治和经济改革后,中产阶级数量将飞速增长,在其国内的人口占比将从19%上涨到73%。

报告介绍道:"印度的中产阶级不但会成为本国经济发展的推动力,他们的巨大购买力也会使印度成为世界最大的市场之一。"

中国的中产阶级也在迅速扩张。但与印度不同,中国的人口发展正遭遇重大障碍,主要是人口老龄化。在这种背景下,即使有中产阶级扩张所带来的增益,经济增长的速度还是很可能被迫减缓。

关键点:印度和中国是全球黄金消费大国。由于两国中产阶级不断扩张,购买力不断增强,黄金需求有望迅速增长。

二、黄金用途转变,且供应可能不足

黄金需求的增长靠的不仅仅是珠宝和金条投资。黄金本身也可应用于很多领域。比如,任何电子元件需要黄金作为原料,因为它导电性好、防腐蚀。很多不知道,黄金还可用于医疗领域。

另外,报告中还介绍了技术发展对工业中黄金需求量的影响:

1.随着物联网的发展,电子元件(和黄金)会大量应用到各种耐用消费品中。

2.混合动力和电动汽车逐渐普及,以黄金作为原料的高端电子元件需求迅速扩大。

3.经临床和药物试验,金化合物有可能成为一类新抗生素。

4.太阳能面板行业发展迅速,需要黄金来制作核心催化组件。

黄金的应用领域还有很多,工业需求只占其中一小部分。而且相比之下,金价受投资需求的影响更大。

参与研究的专家预测,黄金上市交易量的增加和金融科技的发展都会成为黄金需求增长的巨大推动力。技术的发展让黄金交易成本更低,也更便捷,这无疑吸引了大批投资者,包括千禧一代。

与此同时,由于经营成本增加、产量减少、金价走低,黄金供应受到较大限制。

报告总结了黄金供应的现状:

由于成本提高,未来30年金矿产量预计会降低。Metal Focus表示,即使是现在,新的金矿价格也达到了每盎司1500美元。过去15年内,运营成本以每年10%的速度上涨,另外,由于多了环保相关成本,以后的金价可能会更高。

关键点:受运营成本限制,黄金供应商的产量可能无法满足不断增加的黄金需求。反过来,这又会长期对黄金价格造成压力。

三、未来变幻莫测

未来的30年里,投资环境会产生剧烈变化。因为,人口、技术、宏观经济等方面的发展会让全球经济产生结构性变化,这对投资者来说影响巨大。

1.发达国家适工年龄人口缩减。劳动力不足将对经济增长和股权收益造成压力。相应地,劳动力不足,工资上涨,可能会导致低通胀时代的终结。

2.自动化和人工智能的发展--大量基础岗位被取代--会让政治及社会环境更加紧绷,也会加剧市场波动。我们预计西方领导人会修改税制,要求投资者承担更高的税收压力。

3.人口状况对世界大国的发展有深远影响。西方世界一直面临人口老龄化、劳动力不足、经济增长停滞等问题。相比之下,印度和中国在未来数十年里将迎来人口发展的黄金时代。由于人口对经济增长的重要性不言而喻,我们也许能够见证历史,见证东方经济力量的崛起以及西方大国的相对衰落,但同时地缘政治也会变得更加紧张。

4.大数据和人工智能在投资领域得到广泛应用,流动市场的交易趋于自动化。自动化和数据的迅速传输让各种投资偏好间的关联性增强,投资差异化将很难实现。

关键点:未来30年,政治和金融环境都很不稳定。历史已经表明,黄金的价值在变幻莫测的时代最能得到体现,它是经过时间检验的、在经济危机中最能降低财富损失的投资方式。

最省事的投资方式

以上三点发展趋势表明,黄金是最省事的长期投资项目。我们面对的是迷茫的未来,减少投资组合的不稳定因素,就等于增加收益,而且金条说不准哪天就能派上用场。

黄金用作货币一般等价物已经有5000年了,它和纸币不一样,黄金的价值是永远不会消失的。而且,金价不会随股市变化而变化。在过去的7次危机中,黄金价格有5次都是上扬的,这无疑填补了投资中的股权损失。

因此,将黄金作为自己5%-10%的投资资产是很明智的。面临紧张的政治和金融环境,你也能安心一点。

 

The World Gold Council recently released an insightful report titled, Gold 2048: The Next 30 Years for Gold. This report looks at overarching demographic, technological, economic, political, and social trends around the world and their implications for the gold market.

The report has brought together top gold industry experts as well as world-renowned authors and economists who discuss the underlying macro forces that will drive gold in the next 30 years.

This is an eye-opening yet lengthy read that I highly recommend to all investors (find it here). To give you a glimpse of what’s inside the report, this short overview presents the highlights and takeaways from an investment perspective.

Trend #1: The Rise of the Middle Class in Emerging Markets

According to the report, in the next 30 years, demographics will play an increasingly important role in shaping the global economy.

The big story of the next quarter-century will be the rising middle class in emerging markets, particularly in China and India. Recent reports estimated that, over the next 17 years, 170 million Asians will enter the middle class every year.

India, the largest consumer of gold, is set to become the fastest-growing economy in the coming decades. If it manages to pull off its ambitious political and economic reforms, its middle class might soar from 19% to 73% of total population.

“Not only will the Indian middle class become a driving force within the Indian economy, but its aggregate purchasing power will result in the creation of one of the largest markets in the world,” says the report.

China’s middle class, too, is rapidly expanding. But unlike India, the Chinese are facing major demographic headwinds. Key among them is an aging population, which might curb economic growth despite the gains from the expanding middle class.

Takeaway for gold investors:

India and China are the biggest consumers of gold worldwide. As their middle class and aggregate purchasing power grow, gold demand is expected to soar.

Trend #2: A Shift in Gold Demand and Supply Dynamics

Jewelry and investment-grade bullion are not the only drivers of gold demand. Gold has wide industrial applications as well. Practically every piece of electronics has a little gold used as highly conductive and corrosion-resistant material. Unknown to many, gold is even effectively used in medicine.

Here’s a quick rundown of technological trends from the report that will spur industrial gold demand:

  1. The adoption of the Internet of Things (IOT) will lead to an explosion of electronics (and gold) used in all consumer durable goods.
  2. A shift to hybrid and electric vehicles demand far more high-end electronic components that use gold.
  3. Gold compounds show promise in clinical testing and even drugs as a new class of antibiotic.
  4. A booming solar panel industry will demand more gold as a core catalyst component.

There are many more gold applications, but industrial applications make up only a small part of aggregate gold demand. Investment demand has a much more profound impact on the gold price.

The experts who contributed to the report predict that the growing popularity of gold-backed ETFs as well as advancements in fintech will be some of the biggest drivers of gold demand in the coming years. The convenience and cost-effectiveness that technology brings will make gold attractive to more investors, including Millennials.

Meanwhile, gold supply is under major constraints due to rising operating costs, scant gold discoveries, and low gold prices.

The report sums up the current situation in gold supply:

We expect new mine supply to decline over the next 30 years, hit by rising costs. Metals Focus estimates that, even today, new gold mines need a price of about US$1,500/oz, and with costs having increased at a compound annual rate of 10% over the past 15 years, additional ESG costs are likely to mean that even higher gold prices will be required in the future.

Takeaway for gold investors:

Due to operating constraints, gold miners will struggle to keep up with the growing gold demand. This, in turn, will put upward pressure on gold prices in the long run.

Trend #3: A Volatile Future

The investment landscape itself will radically change in the next 30 years. A combination of demographic, technological, and macroeconomic trends is creating structural changes in the global economy that will have profound implications for investors.

  1. Working-age populations are shrinking in the developed world. Labor scarcity will put a strain on economic growth and equity returns. A rise in wages due to constrained labor supply is likely to mark the end of the low inflation era.
  2. The rise of automation and AI—displacing increasingly more workers—will elevate political and social tensions and bring more volatility to the markets. We might also expect Western politics to become more redistributive, which will put a greater financial burden on investors via rising taxes.
  3. The impact of demographics will have a profound effect on the dynamics of global powers. The Western world will be increasingly burdened by aging populations, scarce labor, and stagnant economic growth. Conversely, India and China are set to reach their golden demographic spot in the coming decades. Since demographics have a direct effect on economic growth, we are likely to witness an unprecedented shift of economic power from West to East. As a result, geopolitical tensions will rise.
  4. The widespread adoption of big data and artificial intelligence in investing will increase automated trading in liquid markets. Automation and fast data dissemination will make investment preferences more correlated, so true diversification will be hard to achieve.

Takeaway for gold investors:

The next 30 years are going to be highly unstable, both politically and financially. As history shows, gold performs best in volatile times—and is the best, time-tested hedge against any crisis.

A No-Brainer Investment

These three macro trends suggest that gold is a no-brainer long-term investment. With an uncertain future ahead of us, minimizing your portfolio’s volatility is as important as maximizing returns. And this is where gold bullion comes in handy.

Gold has been around as a medium of exchange for 5,000 years and, unlike most paper currencies, gold’s value has never gone to zero. Even better, the metal is not correlated to the stock market—gold rose in the last five out of seven recessions, offsetting investor losses in equities.

As such, allocating 5–10% of your investable assets to gold is a prudent move that will give you peace of mind amid the political and financial tensions that are already looming on the horizon.


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