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Orchard:美国P2P企业贷款拖欠率正在上升

据悉,一些向借贷初创企业借钱的人,已经延迟还款。

贷款数据服务平台Orchard Platform的数据显示,金融科技类初创公司发放的贷款拖欠率在过去的几个月中持续走高。P2P贷款的拖欠率已经从2015年1月的0.56%上升至2015年12月的0.75%。同样,坏账率——也就是在借款人明确表示不会偿还贷款的比率——也从9月的0.33%上升至12月的0.51%。

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(图:2015年贷款市场拖欠率呈上升趋势)

信用评级公司穆迪最近降低了一个由Prosper发行的、以消费信贷为抵押的证券信用评级。原因是什么呢?因为对于最低安全度贷款(the lowest tranche,即最先蒙受损失的贷款部分)的预计损失已经从8%上升至12%。

Prosper在一份声明中指出,“穆迪最初对于损失的估算远低于Prosper的内部预测、以及那些评级机构设置的预测。”该公司强调,其无抵押消费贷款的资产组合“将继续提供6-8%的净回报”。

可以肯定,根据更广泛的银行业的标准,贷款损失和拖欠仍然处于低水平,(美国联邦储备委员会表示,2015年第四季度,所有贷款和租赁的拖欠率是2.2%)

但销账和拖欠的增加强调了金融科技产业的持续性问题,而金融科技领域是最近几年全球最大幅度创业创新的产业。许多企业在大萧条之后创立并发展。自那时以来,美国经济一直在稳步。现在,全球经济增长放缓影响显示出影响美国市场的迹象,但目前还不清楚这些企业贷款未来将如何表现。

当然,贷款表现出相对温和的恶化,但并不意味着危机正在酝酿之中。最近,传统的贷款人也已经准备迎接更大的损失。例如,摩根大通和富国银行最近都宣布,计划存留走更多的储备金以应对能源领域潜在的迅速下滑而带来的损失,这一可能性已通过低油价表现出来。

但一些投资者显然对此表示担心。一些公开交易的技术驱动的贷款公司,例如OnDeck和LendingClub的股价最近一直遭受重挫。

Some people who have been borrowing money from lending startups have been falling behind on their payments.

Data from lending data service Orchard Platform shows that delinquency rates on loans issued by fintech startups have been creeping higher over the past few months. Delinquency rates on peer-to-peer loans have increased from 0.56% in January 2015 to 0.75% in December 2015. Similarly, charge off rates—which is when a lender essentially says the loan isn’t getting paid back—grew too, from 0.33% in September to 0.51% by December.

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And credit rating firm Moody’s recently put a security backed by unsecured consumer loans originated by Prosper, an alternative lender, on watch for a downgrade. The reason? The expected losses for the lowest tranche—the part of the loan structured to absorb losses first—increased from 8% to 12%.

In a statement, Prosper told Quartz that “Moody’s original estimates of loss were well below Prosper’s internal forecasts as well as those set by rating agency Fitch.” The company stressed that its portfolio of unsecured consumer loans “continues to deliver net returns between 6-8%.”

To be sure, loan losses and delinquencies remain quite low by the standards of the broader banking industry. (The Federal Reserve says delinquency rates on all loans and leases was 2.2% during the fourth quarter of 2015.)

But the increase in charge-offs and delinquencies underscores ongoing questions about the fintech industry, one of the most heavily-hyped parts of the startup world in recent years. Many of these firms developed in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Since then, the US economy has been on a steady, if unspectacular, upswing. Now as global economic slowdown shows signs of impacting the US market, it’s unclear how the loans originated by these firms will perform.

Of course, a relatively mild deterioration in loan performance doesn’t mean that a crisis is brewing. Traditional lenders have also been bracing for bigger losses lately too. For example both JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo recently announced plans to sock away additional reserves to cushion any potential losses from tied to the sharp decline in the energy sector, which has been slammed by low oil prices.

But some investors are clearly concerned. Shares of publicly traded, tech-driven lending firms such as OnDeck and LendingClub have been clobbered lately.


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  • Q
    过眼烟云在 2016/03/02 16:19回复

    这比咱们国内的要好很多吧

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