【注：定向长期再融资操作（Targeted Longer Term Refinancing Operations，简称TLTRO）】
就像Gavyn Davies曾经在FT的一篇专栏博文中提到的那样，未来TLTRO II可能会成为一系列有效政策措施的核心部分。但是，对于关注互联网金融的读者来说，其中最关键的部分应该是TLTRO II对于新生的欧洲P2P市场的影响。与之前的措施相比，TLTRO II的改进之处在于银行使用这种在线中介的成本。这一成本已经从+20bips下降至-40bips。
所以P2P行业是否该对此表示担忧呢？虽然细节仍有待证实，但TLTRO II应该会加剧银行间竞争。作为一种新模式，P2P比传统的银行更具持续优势，因为它们消除了分支店面相关的固定成本，并使用新的数据源进行智能化的风险定价。此前的资本监管环境并不利于银行开拓新的借贷机会，但是P2P行业却从中受益颇多。TLTRO II以及它为银行融资成本带来的补贴，也许会为市场带来更加激烈的竞争。对于欧洲大陆市场借贷平台来说，现在的市场环境可能不会再像之前那样开放了。
What does TLTRO mean for P2P?
Confused about the meaning of TLTRO?
Don’t worry – so were markets. European stock markets and the euro endured wild swings on Thursday as investors sought to understand the latest changes to ECB policy and Mario Draghi’s associated commentary. After initially cheering an expansion of QE, and a further cut to the deposit rate, markets were then disappointed by comments in the press conference which were interpreted as meaning that, because Draghi did not anticipate cutting rates any further, the ECB has run out of ammunition.
But by Friday markets had reached a more positive view. The euro was modestly weaker and stockmarkets soared with banks leading the charge. It seems that overnight the market reflected on the section of the press release that it had ignored previously– the part entitled TLTRO II.
As Gavyn Davies explores in this FT blogpost, a case can be made that TLTRO II could form the central part of what could prove to be a very effective set of policy measures. But what is most interesting to readers of AltFi is the implication for the nascent European P2P marketplace. The incremental improvements in TLTRO II versus the facilities that have preceded it are best represented by one single element – the cost to the banks of using the facility. The cost of the facility has gone from: +20bips to -40bips.
-40bips? Excuse me? Isolating this element makes it increasingly hard to understand how markets didn’t identify the potential impact of this facility on the day of the announcement. Yes – the use of prior iterations of the facility was previously a cost to banks. But now they can be paid 40bips to use it. i.e. their cost of capital isn’t a cost. They get PAID by the ECB to extend loans that are deemed eligible collateral. And this includes allowing banks to roll over existing LTRO-financed loans at the new rate - i.e. financing which used to cost will now attract a credit. Effectively banks are being incentivized to lend by providing them with a subsidy to do so. This will improve banking margins and should as result encourage them to lend – in so doing increasing competition for good borrowers.
So is this a concern for P2P? Whilst details remain to be confirmed it appears that TLTRO II could mean that banks compete more aggressively. By removing the fixed costs associated with a branch network , and using new data sources to allow intelligent pricing of risk ,P2P as a model has sustainable advantages over traditional banking. But P2P has also benefitted from launching into an environment where the increasingly onerous capital requirements associated with new regulation have discouraged banks from seeking out new lending opportunities. TLTRO II, and the subsidy that it seems likely to bring to banks’ cost of capital, may mean that the competitive environment is about to get tougher. For continental European market place lenders ,the market place may no longer be as wide open as it once was.