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穆迪:电子支付普及化带动全球GDP和就业增长

最近一项新的研究表明,近五年电子支付的兴起为70个国家创造了近3000亿美元的GDP,并提供了数以万计的工作岗位。

为了进行该项研究,穆迪的分析师以70个国家2011年至2015年的数据为样本,分析电子支付对这些国家经济增长的影响。样本国家的GDP总和占了全球GDP大约95%的比例。

根据报告结果,愈来愈普及的电子支付产品,包括借记卡、贷记卡和预付卡等,累计的GDP增加值高达2960亿美元,并且平均每年提高家庭的商品和服务消费达0.18个百分点,而发展中国家这种增长更为显著。

另外,穆迪的经济学者还估计,电子支付方式的兴起在超过五年的时间里平均每年创造大约260万的工作机会。该效应最明显的两个国家是中国和印度,据穆迪分析,两者的就业均得益于快速提高的劳动生产率和普及的电子支付。

研究还认为,政府也是电子支付方式的受益者,因为其带来了更加稳健和开放的商业环境,减少了灰色经济的存在空间。这意味着政府的税务收入总体水平上升,现金管理的成本降低,商户能够有更加可靠的支付方式,而普通消费者会享受到普惠式金融的益处。

在对70个国家的研究中穆迪发现,电子支付使用率每提高1%,平均每年对商品和服务的消费就会增加大约1040亿美元。假定未来其他因素不变,这将带来每年平均0.04%的GDP增长。

穆迪的经济学家Mark Zandi评论道:"电子支付对消费、生产扩大、经济增长和创造就业功不可没。电子支付使用率大幅增长的国家,这种对整体经济增长的贡献更加显著。"

The rise of electronic payments over the last five years has added nearly $300 billion to GDP across 70 countries and created millions of jobs, claims a new Visa-commissioned study.

For the study, Moody's Analytics analysed the impact of electronic payments on economic growth across 70 countries, which between them make up almost 95% of global GDP, between 2011 and 2015.

According to the report, increased use of electronic payment products, including credit, debit and prepaid cards, added $296 billion to GDP, while raising household consumption of goods and services by an average of 0.18% per year, with developing countries seeing the biggest boost.

Meanwhile, Moody's economists estimate that over the five years the rise of e-payments resulted in the equivalent to 2.6 million new jobs being created on average, annually. The two countries with the greatest average job increases were China and India, which, Moody's notes, both had large gains in employment due to the combination of fast growing labour productivity and increased card usage.

The study also suggests that the electronification of payments benefits governments and contributes to a more stable and open business environment while shrinking the grey economy. All this means higher tax revenue bases for governments, lower cash handling costs, guaranteed payments to merchants and greater financial inclusion for consumers.

Across the 70 countries, Moody's found that every one per cent increase in usage of electronic payments could produce, on average, an annual increase of approximately $104 billion in the consumption of goods and services. Assuming all future factors remain the same, this could result in an annual average increase of 0.04% to GDP attributable to card usage.

Mark Zandi, chief economist, Moody's Analytics, says: "Electronic payments are a major contributor to consumption, increased production, economic growth and employment creation. Those countries which saw large increases in card usage also saw larger contributions to overall growth in their economies."


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