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Squirrel:奥克兰房价下跌风险或将波及P2P与众筹

抵押经纪商、P2P借款平台Squirrel集团近日指出,奥克兰房屋市场价格调整可能会大幅削减其房屋销量,并对其正在进行的497万新西兰元(后文简称“元”)私募股权众筹招标产生影响。

在2008年国际金融危机中,奥克兰房地产销量曾一度降至每月1500笔,这仅相当于2015年销售总额的50%。Squirrel正是根据这一数据进行了风险量化分析。

在截至2016年3月的财政年度中,Squirrel 团队的预测销售额为8亿元,根据这个数据,其设定的目标为到2017年住房抵押贷款额增至每年10亿元。如果房价调整预测成立,Squirrel集团2017财政年度预测总量将下降40%(4亿元),每位顾问签订的协议总数也会相应下降25%左右。

这意味着短期内Squirrel2017年运营收入将损失140万元,但是随着团队将上市提上日程,该集团预计次年将获得120万元的运营收益。

缓解危机的主要因素是供给端缺口。计划书显示,尽管奥克兰房屋价格一路上涨,但是现在还不是高销售阶段。据估计,接下来两年内将会有2.5万的房屋缺口,目前大量的房地产建设将会促进销量增长。Squirrel也采用增长年金和循环收入来减缓抵押贷款额浮动对收入的影响。

在没有进行价格调整之前,Squirel团队在2016财政年度的预计息税折旧摊销前利润为61.2274万元,2017年为56.7482万元,2018年为345万元,2019年为720万元。Squirrel Money是Squirrel旗下刚刚成立的P2P贷款服务部门,预计该机构2016财政年度仅有100万元的预计息税折旧摊销前亏损,并可能在2018年转亏为盈。

Squirrel希望通过在股权众筹平台Snowball Effect募集197万元,并通过最多17.9%的股权整销换取300万元,团队的要约股份估值为2290万元。这两项交易的最小募集资金为100万元。

招股最低5000美元起,且仅为投资类别,仅仅获取股利而没有投票权。出资10万元以上投资者可获取拥有投票权的普通股。

创始人兼首席执行官John Bolton股份一直由家族基金进行管理。如果此次招股成功,John Bolton的持股比例将从现在的91%减少至74.8%。此次他共认购47万股,并将Squirrel Mortgages所获偿还的17.5506万元贷款进行了再投资。

总部在位于奥克兰的Squirrel公司目前正委托怀卡托和丰盛湾的三家经纪商对其打造全国品牌性的可能进行评估。尽管招股书上的财务预测主要以公司的自然发展为主,不过Squirrel在去年10月收购了第一个经纪商Aspire Advisors,这也显露了其进行更大手笔收购的意愿。

该公司募集资金中的50万元将用于新的抵押运营系统的建设,以期提高申请提交和协定过程。长期来看,它还是想要设置与银行出款人的直接链接,这样它可以与Xero和MYOB等平台一样,让客户在一个地方获得所有信息。

Squirrel也标记了2.5万元用于加强高级抵押贷款计算器等网站金融工具,希望借此提高在线申请服务质量。

在招股书中有如下表述:“人工智能和机器学习在未来的金融领域将大显身手,我们非常希望尽早开始逐步使用这项技术。”

大多数资金将用于P2P借贷平台的建设,Squirrel希望在三年内将其贷款量从170万元提高至1.54亿元。

200万元将被设置为流动资金,这将为协定新贷款和公司市场运营提供空间,而不必依赖于投资者的资金。和其他P2P平台不同,Squirrel Money没有银行等大型投资者的支持。

还有50万元将作为种子储备资金,根据其牌照条件,其第一年的储备金必须达到4%。该公司去年投入10万元用于储备金,根据增长情况,今年必须投入50万元。

Squirrel Group, the mortgage broker and peer-to-peer lender, cites an Auckland housing market correction that could significantly slow sales as a risk to its $4.97 million private equity crowdfunding offer currently underway.

It quantified the risk by citing the city's experience during the global financial crisis when sales volumes dropped to 1,500 per month during 2008. That's 50 percent lower than housing turnover in 2015.

Squirrel Mortgages has a target of arranging more than $1 billion of residential mortgages annually by 2017, up from the $800 million forecast for the March 2016 financial year. If a housing correction occurs, it has modelled a 40 percent reduction ($400 million) in forecast volumes and a 25 percent drop in settlements per adviser for the 2017 financial year.

That would mean a short-term group operating loss of $1.4 million in 2017, just as it plans to list on the sharemarket, before recovering to an operating profit of $1.2 million the following year.

Main mitigants against the risk are that despite a rise in Auckland house prices, it hasn't been a period of high turnover and there's an estimated shortage of 25,000 houses over the next two years with significant building activity underway that could fuel sales, the offer document said. Squirrel also has growing annuity and trail recurring income which will help smooth out income flows if mortgage volumes fluctuate, it said.

Without a correction, it’s forecasting group earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda) of $612,274 in the 2016 financial year, $567,482 in 2017, $3.45 million in 2018 and $7.2 million by 2019. It’s fledgling peer-to-peer lending business, Squirrel Money, is forecast to post an ebitda loss of just over $1 million in the 2016 financial year, and to break even by 2018.

Squirrel is seeking to raise $1.97 million through a private offer on equity crowdfunding platform Snowball Effect and a further $3 million through a wholesale offer for a maximum shareholding of 17.9 percent, valuing the company pre-offer at $22.9 million. The minimum amount to be raised across both offers is $1 million.

Shares on offer, at a minimum parcel of $5,000, are investment class only, which means they get dividends but no voting rights. Investors who put in $100,000 or more get ordinary shares with voting rights.

If the offer is fully subscribed, founder and chief executive John Bolton will reduce his current 91 percent stake, held through a family trust, to 74.8 percent. He subscribed for 470,000 shares in the offer, reinvesting funds he receives from repayment of a $175,506 loan to Squirrel Mortgages.

The Auckland-based company is currently trialling three brokers across Waikato and the Bay of Plenty to assess the viability of rolling out a nationwide brand. While the offer’s financial projections are based on organic growth, Squirrel is considering following last November’s acquisition of its first broker, Aspire Advisors, with some other larger brokers.

Half a million dollars of the money raised will go on building a new mortgage management system, improving the submission and settlement process. Long-term it wants to have direct links into its bank lenders so clients can see everything in one place as platforms like Xero and MYOB have done for business.

It’s also earmarked $250,000 for adding web financial tools such as advanced mortgage calculators into its online application.

“Artificial intelligence and machine learning will play a significant role in the future of financial services, so we are keen to embrace this technology early in some small way,” the offer said.

Most of the money will bolster its peer-to-peer lending platform which is targeted to increase lending from the current $1.7 million to $154 million within three years.

Some $2 million is budgeted to set up a liquidity fund that can settle new loans and allow the company to do marketing campaigns that won’t be limited by relying on sufficient investors’ funds. Unlike other peer-to-peer lenders, Squirrel Money doesn’t use a wholesale funder such as a bank.

A further half million is earmarked for its seed reserve fund which has to hit 4 percent reserves in its first year under its licence conditions. The company put $100,000 into the fund on launch last year and needs another $500,000 depending on growth.


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