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国际清算银行:过度信贷或将引发中国银行业危机

其他国际资讯

国际清算银行:过度信贷或将引发中国银行业危机

China’s banking system is riskier than it has ever been, the latest global data shows

未偿银行信贷与GDP差额是金融系统健康的关键指标。国际清算银行(BIS)最新数据显示,中国的这一指标已至历史新高峰,达到危险指数的三倍。

国际清算银行总部设在瑞士巴塞尔,致力于分析中央银行数据。该机构9月18日公布的季度报告(报告原文请点击)中称,截止2016年3月底,中国的差额指数已达到30.1%。这一数值比第二高的国家加拿大高两倍还多,远远超过该机构设定的10%的红色警戒线。

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这也是国际清算银行自1995年追踪差额数据以来的最高数值:

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这一数据表示非金融公司及个人未偿信贷与GDP之比与其长期趋势之间的差异。国际清算银行这样解释,此数据“已被证实是可靠的金融危机预警指标”。2008年金融危机前,美国信贷—GDP差额超过了10%。

其实自2009年第三季度以来,中国的信贷—GDP差额就已经超过了10%的临界值,却并没有产生经济危机。这就显示了政府密切控制的金融系统运行与其他金融系统的区别。近几年,中国的中央银行(即中国人民银行)几次放松信贷管控,希望现金的涌入能够刺激中国缓慢增长的经济。近期,消费者中盛行新型房屋购买风潮,抵押贷款发展迅速。

这股空前的借贷风潮以及历史性高位的中国信贷—GDP差额是否或者何时会导致中国真正的银行危机,这一话题充满争议,却鲜有清晰的结论。

China’s outstanding bank credit to GDP gap, a key measure of financial systems’ health, has hit a new record high and is now three times the level considered risky by the Bank for International Settlements.

The gap stood at 30.1% at the end of March 2016, the BIS, as the Basel-based agency that analyzes central bank data is known, said in its latest quarterly report (pdf, p. 28), released Sept. 18. That’s more than double the level of the next highest country, Canada, and well above the 10% level that’s considered a red flag by the agency.

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It is also the highest it has been since the BIS started tracking the gap in 1995:

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The figure represents the difference between the ratio of outstanding credit (to non-financial companies and individuals) to GDP and its long-term trend. It “has been found to be a useful early warning indicator of financial crises,” the agency explains. Ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, for example, the credit-to-GDP gap was over 10% in the United States.

Still, China’s credit-to-GDP gap has been over that 10% threshold since the third quarter of 2009, without a crisis, a sign the tightly government-controlled system does not perform like other financial systems. The People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank, has loosened credit controls several times in recent years, hoping a torrent of cash will strengthen the country’s slowing economy. Most recently, mortgage lending shot up, as consumers went on a new home-buying boom.

When, or even if, this unprecedented flood of lending, and China’s record-high credit-to-GDP gap, will result in an actual banking crisis in China is the subject of much debate but few clear conclusions.

GELP

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