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麦肯锡: 移动金融将推动发展中国家GDP增长3.7万亿美元

数字金融的发展已经完全颠覆了富裕国家,那些国家的人们已经完全习惯了通过手机完成付款、向朋友家人转账,而无需在银行排队,忍受漫长的等待。

然而,发展中国家中仍然大约有20亿人无法享受到基础的金融服务,例如拥有自己的储蓄账户和信用。20亿人几乎是发展中国家成年总人口的一半。据麦肯锡全球研究所的一项研究表明,如果这些人中的大部分人能够通过使用手机或网络享受到这些服务的话,那么到2025年,整个发展中国家的新兴经济将会带动GDP的增长,涨幅将为3.7万亿美元,也就是6%的增长率。

三分之二的经济发展都得益于数字支付的不断发展,而不是现金支付,通过电子进行往来记录而非传统纸张记录。剩余的GDP收益则来源于投资,越来越多的企业开始能够接触到正规的金融体系和信用记录。

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这份报告由麦肯锡于9月21日发出,麦肯锡表示数字金融对整个金融业的好处不言而喻。这些基础服务能够缓解不平等,贫穷,甚至在针对政府腐败问题上也有帮助。而且还能创造9500万个新增岗位。

麦肯锡称,数字金融可以让16亿人都有机会享受到金融服务,可以说历史上首次在新兴经济体中惠及了8.8亿女性。这个目标完全能实现,因为基础设施建设都已就位。在2014年,发展中国家有80%的成年人使用手机。预计到2020年,拥有一部手机的成年人比例将达到90%。

报告显示,经济发展任重道远,但是数字金融解决方案的介入将会极大程度加速经济的发展,而且成本可控。手机支持比其他金融服务的支出成本要低90%。这样提供商也能为低收入群体提供服务,而且还能盈利。

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尽管如此,现金交易仍旧是非常普遍。在新兴国家中,90%的交易都是靠现金。相比之下,同时期美国的数字支付占比49%,英国则占比55%。

据调查研究显示,最为贫穷的国家,例如埃塞俄比亚、印度和尼日利亚的GDP已上涨12%,因为整个国家的金融发展还处于非常低的水平。相对富裕一些国家,例如中国和巴西,经济增长也仅为5%。

据麦肯锡估测,印度每年的损失将超过20亿美元,因为那些时间都耗费在了往返银行的路上。

数字金融对企业的好处可谓巨大。它能够为中小型企业之间2.2万亿美元的鸿沟创造填补的条件,现在这些企业可以有机会使用这笔钱。这样整个金融体系中的存款将达到4.2万亿美元,其中部分资金便能借贷给这些国家的各大企业。

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同样,数字支付及电子记录也能为政府每年节省1100亿美元的开支,避免了资金在流向公共项目支出和征税时时不知所踪。

报告还显示,新兴经济体中数十亿的人们都拥有手机,他们都能够直接连接至国家支付系统。他们在等待政府和企业能够尽快完成基础设施建设,开发出所需的产品。

Digital finance has transformed rich countries, where many now take for granted paying our bills online, sending money to our friends and family from our phone, and not having to wait in line at the bank.

In developing nations, however, two billion people don’t have access to basic financial services such as savings accounts and credit. That’s almost half of the developing world’s adult population. Giving most of these people access to those services using mobile phones and the internet would increase the GDP of emerging economies by $3.7 trillion by 2025, according to a study by the McKinsey Global Institute. That’s a 6% boost.

Two-thirds of the economic growth would come from the increased productivity of using digital payments instead of cash and using electronic record-keeping instead of paper. The rest of the GDP gains come from more investment as businesses are brought into a formal financial system and credit becomes more easily available.

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The report published today (Sept. 21) by McKinsey argues that the benefits of digital finance go beyond unlocking another market for the financial industry. Access to these basic services would reduce inequality, poverty and even government corruption. It would also create 95 million new jobs.

Digital finance can provide access to financial services for 1.6 billion people—880 million of them women—in emerging economies for the first time, McKinsey said. This is within reach because the infrastructure already exists. In 2014, 80% of adults in developing nations had mobile subscriptions. By 2020, 90% of these adults will own a mobile phone.

“Economic development is usually a long journey, but digital finance solutions can radically speed the progress, and at a relatively affordable cost,” the report says. Mobile payments lower the cost of providing financial services by as much as 90%. This would let providers serve low-income customers and still make a profit.

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Despite all this, cash is still overwhelmingly prevalent. In emerging nations, 90% of payment transactions are made in cash. In comparison, digital payments are used 49% of the time in the US and 55% of the time in the UK.

The poorest countries, such as Ethiopia, India and Nigeria could increase their GDP by up 12%, according to the study, because they are starting from a very low level of financial inclusion. Relatively richer countries such a China and Brazil could still boost economic growth by 5%.

McKinsey estimates that Indians lose more than $2 billion a year in forgone income simply from the time spent traveling to and from a bank.

Benefits for businesses are huge. Digital finance could create the conditions to fill the $2.2 trillion gap between the credit small and medium-sized business can access now, and what they need. It could flood the financial system with $4.2 trillion in deposits, some of which could be used for loans back into the businesses of these countries.

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Digital payments and electronic records would also save governments about $110 billion a year as money is less likely to go missing on its way to public spending projects or on its way back in tax collection.

“Billions of people across emerging economies possess the mobile handset that can connect directly into the national payments system,” the report says. “They are just waiting for governments and businesses to wire up the infrastructure and create the products they need.”


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