十年来首次发声 "大空头"原型Steve Eisman都说了什么?
Steve Eisman是电影“大空头”中Mark Baum（Steve Carell扮演）一角的灵感来源，影片上映使他一夜成名。10年前尚无人关注之时，他就依靠做大空头赚得亿万美元。即使他本人并不高调，但这位金融大亨的每一次现身却都能引来广泛关注。上周日为参加这周举行的第22届ABS东部会议，他出现在了迈阿密海景酒店Fontainebleau。这次大会的与会者还包括几千名华尔街证券从业人员。巧合的是，电影“大空头”中的一幕——Mark Baum对着一个正发言的抵押贷经理大发雷霆——就在该酒店拍摄。
Eisman自07年后就再也没有参加过证券行业会议。但迈阿密的这场年度会议组织者IMN(Information Management Network)决定打破这一习惯，邀请他与会发表主旨演讲。
据Asset Securitization Report报道，Eisman分析了这次抵押贷款危机并评估了现在的经济状况和金融系统：套用他的话就是“为什么情况依然糟糕”。
报道中指出，09年以来出现了160多家此类企业。发展最好的有LendingClub Corp,Prosper Marketplace Inc.和Social Finance Inc。据KPMG统计，这三家公司2015年总计促成融资达360多亿美元，大部分是消费者借贷，同比多出110亿美元。SoFi发言人拒绝就Eisman的讲话发表评论；LendingClub和Prosper的发言人没有回复我们邀其评论的信息。
One decade before he became famous for the being the inspiration behind Mark Baum's character, played by Steve Carell in the movie the "The Big Short", Steve Eisman was making hundreds of millions predicting the next big short, namely the collapse of the subprime mortgage industry. Which is why every appearance of the otherwise reclusive financial guru sees broad popular interest, and this past Sunday, when Eisman appeared at the beachfront Fontainebleau Hotel in Miami, where several thousand Wall Street securitization professionals are convening this week for their 22nd annual ABS East Conference, was no different.
Incidentally, it’s the same gathering where, in one scene of the film "The Big Short," the character based on Eisman bursts into outrage at a mortgage executive giving a talk.
Eisman hadn’t attended a securitization conference since 2007. But Information Management Network, the organizer of an annual confab in Miami, decided to changed that when it invited him to give the keynote speech Sunday.
So what did did Eisman have to say to the industry that he helped bring down? “You fuckers blew up planet earth. Shut up and move on.” adding that “it feels like Daniel in the lion’s den."
Cited by the Asset Securitization Report, he then apologized in advance for offending his audience, and launched into an explanation of the mortgage crisis and an assessment of the current state of the economy and financial system, or “why things still suck.”
The bottom line, in his view, we don’t have the three prerequisites for a full-blow crisis:
(1) too much leverage
(2) a big asset class that blows up
(3) a lot of banks holding this asset class
By that measure, neither subprime auto loans nor student loans are going to be the next mortgage crisis. Eisman seems more concerned about Europe, where banks are still much more highly leveraged than in the U.S., and where regulators in peripheral countries like Italy, Spain and Portugal have been slow to force them to recognize losses.
But while the big picture may not be so bad right now, Eisman said he is not a big believer in marketplace lending. “Silicon Valley is clueless,” he says.
“If you buy a book on Amazon, that’s the end of the relationship.” Whereas, if you make a mortgage, “that’s the beginning of the transaction.” And there are only two business models. “The first is to originate the loan and hold it, which means you’re a bank. That’s a low margin business. The second is to originate a loan and sell it, and who are they going to sell it to? You [Wall Street]. And you are fickle.”
As Bloomberg adds, Eisman said that the central problem is that lending startups, their founders and backers in particular, don’t have a lot of experience making loans to consumers, and some of them approach loan-making as they would retail sales, Eisman said.
As Bloomberg notes, more than 160 startup firms of this kind have emerged since 2009. The biggest include LendingClub Corp., Prosper Marketplace Inc. and Social Finance Inc. Together these companies arranged more than $36 billion of financing in 2015, mainly for consumers, up from $11 billion the year before, according to a report from KPMG. A spokeswoman for SoFi declined to comment about Eisman’s remarks; representatives for LendingClub and Prosper didn’t return messages seeking comment.
“We have seen loans underperform from their expected loss estimate at the time of underwriting,” Stephanie Yeh, a director at Credit Suisse Group AG, said on a Monday morning panel discussion. “There still isn’t a lot of data.”
Earlier this year, a spike in delinquencies and defaults from some lenders rippled through the community of investors who buy these securitizations. Investors demanded that lenders raise their rates to protect the high returns that they’ve come to expect from the debt. In an audience poll on the same panel, more than 50 percent of the crowd said in a live electronic survey that there is not sufficient data for investors to assess risk tied to unsecured consumer loan securitizations.
To be sure, proponents of peer 2 peer lending cite the benefits of this technology, which include faster approval times, cheaper transaction costs, and more availability of credit to borrowers who may otherwise not qualify for traditional consumer loans, typically of several thousand dollars and with higher interest rates. Big banks, money managers, hedge funds, insurers, trustees, law firms and credit ratings firms are all competing for the online lenders’ business. But these lenders and their wares are new, and they haven’t been tested in an economic downturn yet. This has drawn concern from skeptics like Eisman, who say there’s no telling how the loans will perform long-term. He said Sunday night the business will never scale to the proportions that its proponents claim.
That said, if the recent woes of former lending giant LendingClub are any indication, one won't even need to wait for a downturn before the industry faces its own subprime moment.