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穆迪:美国在线借贷商业模式仍有不少固有弱点

评级机构穆迪在一份仅针对订阅用户的报告中指出,美国在线借贷平台迅速反应,抓住机会,满足了市场对于定向、易得的电子金融服务的需求。但此类借贷模式固有的缺点将很有可能导致这些平台只能局限于市场一隅。

该报告指出,美在线借贷平台在无担保消费者贷款、学生贷款和小型商贷方面最为活跃。尽管与2011年10亿美元的规模相比,此类平台总体贷款发放额增速迅猛,2015年已达200亿美元,但总体来看市场份额仍很小。

穆迪高级副总裁Warren Kornfeld说,“在线(借贷)业务有多种模式,各某一类小众市场。此类平台目前尚未获得可观的盈利,快速发展也增加了他们的运营不稳性。”

报告指出,在线借贷平台利用科技与简单易用的网络平台简化了借款者申请流程并缩短了申请通过时间,有时还降低了借款利率。但穆迪认为在线借贷业务并不能长久保持竞争性优势,优势基础不牢固,比如敏感资金、重复性营收比例低、营销成本高等问题。

穆迪报告还提到,当不确定情绪蔓延,信心即敏感资金将会减少,在线借贷平台也将面临与传统借贷方一样的资金限制。在线平台的运营只要出现或外界认为出现威胁时,资金断链就可能发生。这些威胁包括资产表现减弱、管理薄弱及一些系统性风险,如宏观经济、融资环境不佳、管理不确定性以及竞争性产业威胁。

许多在线借贷平台收益大多来自于非经常性收入、销售收入以及出售新发放贷款所得的费用。银行和传统金融公司经常性收入比重较大,尤其是贷款产品组合所产生的净利润。该份报告还指出,为了打响知名度、扩张业务,一些在线平台将55%的收益用于销售和市场营销。报告认为,虽然这些公司认为他们是在投资未来,但这些高花费所带来的回报是不确定的。

 

US online lenders have quickly seized opportunities to meet demand for more targeted, easy-to-access digital financial services; however, inherent weakness in the online lender business model will likely limit it to a small segment of the market, Moody’s Investors Service says in a report only available to Moody’s subscribers, “Fintech – US Online Lenders: Competitive Advantages in Underserved Niche Market Rest on Unsteady Foundation.”

The report says online lenders are most active in unsecured consumer loans, student loans and small business loans in the US. Despite the marked increase in aggregate loan origination volumes to more than $20 billion in 2015 compared to less than $1 billion in 2011, the estimated market share in 2015 was very small.

“There is a range of online business lending models, each serving a different niche,” analyzed Moody’s SVP Warren Kornfeld.“Online lenders have yet to achieve adequate profitability, and rapid growth exacerbates the volatility of their performance.”

The report notes that online lenders leverage technology and user-friendly internet platforms to provide borrowers with simple application processes and short approval times and in some cases lower borrowing rates, but Moody’s believes the model for the online lending business’ competitive advantages is positioned on an unsteady foundation of confidence-sensitive funding, low recurring revenue and high marketing budgets.

Moody’s report also notes that online lenders face the same funding constraints as traditional lenders during times of uncertainty when confidence-sensitive funding is less available. Funding disruptions can occur because of actual or perceived threats to an online lender’s performance, ranging from declines in asset performance and governance weaknesses, to systemic issues such as weak macroeconomic or funding environments, regulatory uncertainty or competitive industry threats. Many of the online lenders have a high proportion of non-recurring, gain-on-sale or fee income generated from selling newly originated loans. Banks and traditional finance companies have high levels of recurring revenues, especially net interest income generated from their loan portfolios. To build their brands and to drive growth, Moody’s reported that some online lenders have spent as much as 55% of revenue on sales and marketing. While the companies believe they are investing for the future, the payoff from their high sales and marketing expenses is uncertain, according to the report.


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