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通过人人投资那些还未上市的国际Fintech企业

世界上并不缺少向金融科技领域投资的风投企业。但是对个体投资者来说,因为很少有金融科技公司真正上市,要接触到金融科技公司很难。这家叫人人的公司是一家社交媒体平台(纽约证券交易所交易代码RENN),如今转为金融科技投资公司,向多家金融科技领头企业投资。而我们今天要聊的,就是如何通过人人这家上市企业投资那些还未上市的国际金融科技公司。

据统计,人人最有名的投资包括SoFi、Lending Home、Motif Investing、Fundrise。人人参与了SoFi的B、D、E、F轮投资,总额超过2.42亿美元。根据2015年年终报告:“人人在2014、2015年12月31日分别持有SoFi 28.85%、21.20%的股权。”现在我们还没有新的数据,但是人人在SoFi仍有较高股权,这将继续与其他竞争者对抗。以下表格来自2015年人人年终收入报告,突出展示最佳金融科技公司投资。

中文图

为了向SoFi投资,人人以6%的利息贷款近6000万美元进行融资。财务报表数据显示,如果SoFi实现收益目标,贷款将有望在三年到五年内偿还。2016年9月有报道称,在2015年获得10亿美元的巨额E轮融资后,SoFi正寻求5亿美元的新一轮融资。

人人同样在Motif占有10%的重大份额;在Lending Home占有14.7%(该公司刚刚获得10亿美元的起始资金);在Fundrise占有25.3%(该公司正在进行众筹,已经获得2.1亿美元初始资金,共12.3万人投资)。

去年九月,人人召开发布会,宣布人人有意成立新形式的子公司,运行公司的社交视屏平台以及“私人控股企业少数股权下的大部分投资”。现存的社交资产将被留下。人人称此举的目的是为了降低被认为是Investment Company Act of 1940下投资公司的风险,也是为了开发社交视屏业务的潜力。如果这一计划开启,人人公司所有者将是合格投资人,获得新成立私人公司股份,非合格投资人及选择放弃子公司股份的人将获得现金。

2016年12月,人人召开另一场发布会,透露将根据评估详细考量已提出的计划。

人人进一步宣布,董事会已经收到非约束性收购提议,购买还未在子公司计划中做好分配的任意股份。这个方案来自人人创立者、主席兼首席运营官陈一舟、人人执行理事兼首席运营官刘健以及SB Pan Pacific Corporation下子公司SoftBank Group Capital Limited。陈一舟与SB Pan Pacific Corporation是人人的两大股东。非约束性收购提议中估值剥离后公司净资产5亿美元。

我们仍不知道到底那些公司会在剥离公司中,但通过人人提供的问答文件我们得知,这项计划将包括人人在SoFi的股份。在问题一中,人人打算在2017年完成剥离计划。

交易中仍然会出现许多波动,但我们还是可以粗略估算价值。第一步,用5亿美元的企业价值与我们在投资组合中的资产净值进行对比。我们最迫切的问题就是企业价值与资产净值比例折价多少。换句话说,就是我们的这些交易是否划算?

为了比较数值,我们选择了一个相似的公开交易风投交易组合 GSVC,资产净值折价大约为40%。GSVC旗下有 Palantir、Dropbox、Spotify及其他互联网公司。这就意味着,如果你购买GSVC股票,你就会收到投资组合所有权,相对于投资组合价值折价40%。

我们还需要创造一个与人人类似的框架。人人在金融科技投资中投资超过4亿美元,其中包括对SoFi的2.42亿投资(约占其投资60%)。2015年8月,《华尔街日报》报道SoFi估值可能超过40亿美元,这就意味着人人21.2%的股份价值超过8亿美元(我们并不知道其流动资产偏好及其他可能影响价值的因素)。

如果我们把其他所持股份按成本价计算,然后加上8亿美元SoFi的价值,扣去2.42亿美元的花费,我们就得到资产净值为9.58亿美元。这就意味着5亿的企业价值将以资产净值折价48%进行交易。

所以如果我们现在购买人人的股票,我们是否将以折价48%获得互联网投资组合所有权?

其实这取决于你购买股票时的价格及你在开放市场卖出残根股完成交易的能力。或许考虑到股票数量较少,在没有股票价格的实际影响因素的情况下,很难准确定位。但是如果我们把收盘价格定在1.66美元,这就意味着市场总值为5.61亿美元。一旦减去剥离公司的5亿美元,剩下的自有价值为6100万美元。我们保守一点,回到资产总额与资产净值的比例上,把价值放低到8.97亿美元,折价放低至44%。

结论

理解这件事最重要的一点是不要管这次交易,人人资产价值约5亿美元,但是还持有SoFi可能价值超过8亿美元的股票。如果你是合格投资者,现在购买人人股票可能将会以约44%折价获得私人公司投资组合中的所有权,投资组合包括一大批大有希望的金融科技公司,最主要还包括SoFi(再一次强调,准确的投资组合还没有公布,所以我们不能准确估算资产净值)。

我已经关注研究人人大约两年,因为我对他们投资金融科技公司尤其是SoFi感兴趣,开始在这个公司进行小额投资。可惜作为非合格投资者,我不会收到私人企业股份,这就意味着如果SoFi继续保持发展,我将很有可能失去SoFi的利润。但是如果你是合格投资者,你看好SoFi,或者你正寻找投资金融科技公司,人人是一个实现目标的有趣途径。

注意:这篇文章在整合现有公开信息后,进行了重要的预测。这些猜测可能是错误的。这篇文章并不是投资建议。向任何公开企业进行投资前,你都应该考虑自身的状况。本文作者Ryan Lichtenwald在人人持有股份。

Renren is a social networking platform turned fintech investment firm allocating serious capital to some leading players in fintech

There are no shortage of VC firms who have allocated dollars to various fintechs throughout the world. But for individual investors it is difficult to get exposure to fintech companies because so few have actually gone public. There is one company called Renren that has allocated to numerous fintech firms and is currently publicly traded on the NYSE under symbol RENN.

The company operates a real name social networking platform in China but has most recently made investments in fintech businesses which will be the focus of this post.

Most notable investments from a US perspective include SoFi, Lending Home, Motif Investing and Fundrise. Renren has participated in SoFi’s series B, D, E and F rounds for a total investment of over $242 million. According to the 2015 year end report, “The Company held 28.85% and 21.20% equity interest of SoFi as of December 31, 2014 and 2015, respectively.” While we don’t have updated numbers, Renren owns a significant interest in SoFi, which continues to buck the trends of their competitors. The below table was taken from Renren’s 2015 year end earnings report and highlights their top fintech investments.

英文图

In order to invest this amount in SoFi, the company borrowed nearly $60 million at 6% to finance the transaction. According to financial reports, the loan is expected to be repaid over three years with the potential to extend to five years if SoFi meets revenue targets. It was reported in September, 2016 that SoFi was seeking to raise an additional $500 million after their massive $1 billion Series E round in 2015.

Renren also hold significant positions in Motif (10%, their CEO was the most recent guest on the Lend Academy Podcast, Lending Home (14.7%, which just crossed $1 bn in originations) and Fundrise (25.3%, which is in the process of raising money from the crowd, has originated over $210 mn in originations and touts 123k members).

In September of this year, Renren issued a press release announcing its intentions to spin off a newly formed subsidiary to hold the company’s social video platform and “most of the Company’s investments in minority stakes in privately held companies.” The remaining social networking assets will be left behind (the “stub”). They cite the reasoning for this move to minimize risk of being deemed an investment company under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and to unlock potential of the social video business.

If this process were to take place, owners of Renren that are accredited investors will receive shares of the newly formed private company spin off while non accredited investors and those who choose to not own shares of the spinoff will receive cash.

In December, 2016 the company issued another press release which gave more insight to the proposed plans with regards to valuation.

The Company further announced that its board of directors has received a preliminary non-binding proposal to purchase any shares of SpinCo that are not distributed in the proposed spin-off. The letter was from Mr. Joseph Chen, the Company’s founder, chairman and chief executive officer, Mr. James Jian Liu, the Company’s executive director and chief operating officer, and SoftBank Group Capital Limited, an affiliate of SB Pan Pacific Corporation. Mr. Chen and SB Pan Pacific Corporation are the Company’s two largest shareholders. The preliminary non-binding proposal would value SpinCo at US$500 million, net of debt.

While we still don’t know exactly which companies will be included in the spinoff, we do know they plan to include their shares of SoFi as noted in a Q & A document provided by Renren. Renren is aiming to complete the proposed spinoff transaction in Q1, 2017.

While there is a lot at play in this transaction we can do some back of the envelope math to figure out valuation. Our first step is to compare the $500 million Enterprise Value (EV) with our estimate on the Net Asset Value (NAV) of the portfolio. Our burning question is how deep is the discount of the EV to the NAV? In other words, just how good of a deal are we getting?

For comparison sake, a similar publicly traded VC portfolio called GSVC trades at about a 40% discount to its NAV. GSVC owns Palantir, Dropbox, Spotify, and other Internet companies. This means that if you buy GSVC you receive ownership in their venture portfolio at a 40% discount to the value of their portfolio.

We need to create a similar framework for Renren. They have invested over $400 million in their fintech portfolio, which includes the $242 million investment in SoFi or about 60% of their portfolio. In August, 2015, the Wall Street Journal reported that SoFi’s valuation may be over $4 billion, which would imply that Renren’s 21.2% stake was worth more than $800 million (we don’t know the liquidity preferences and other terms that may impact valuation).

If we hold all other holdings at cost and then add $800 million for SoFi’s value and subtract the SoFi cost basis of $242 million we arrive at a NAV of $958m. This implies that the EV of $500 million will trade at a 48% discount to the NAV.

So if we buy the stock today, do we get ownership into the Internet Finance portfolio at a 48% discount?

Well, that depends on the price you pay for the stock and your ability to sell the stub in the open market to complete the transaction. It may be difficult to build a position without materially impacting the stock price given the low volume in the stock. But if we use the closing price of $1.66, this implies a market cap of $561 million. Once we back out the $500 million for the SpinCo, we are left with a stub value of $61 million. Let’s be conservative and back the entire amount out of the NAV, lowering the value to $897 million and the discount to 44%.

Conclusion

The most important thing to understand is that regardless of this transaction, Renren has an enterprise value of about $500 million but owns stock in SoFi that is possibly worth $800 million or more. If you are an accredited investor, it may be possible to buy Renren stock today and inherit ownership in a private holdco for about a 44% discount in a portfolio that predominantly owns SoFi as well as a bunch of other promising fintech companies (again, the exact portfolio composition of the portfolio hasn’t been announced yet so we can’t accurately predict the NAV).

I’ve been following the Renren story for about 2 years and initially invested a small amount into the company because I was interested in their private investments in fintech firms, particularly SoFi. Unfortunately as a non-accredited investor I will not receive shares of the private company which means I will potentially miss out on the upside if SoFi continues to be successful. But if you are accredited and you love SoFi or if you are looking to allocate to fintech firms, Renren is an interesting way to do just that.

Disclosure: This article makes significant assumptions by piecing together publicly available information. These assumptions may be wrong. This post does not constitute investment advice. You should consider your own situation before investing in any public company. Ryan Lichtenwald, the author of this article owns shares in Renren.


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