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fintech公司如何看待英国脱欧?

本月初,英国正式启动里斯本条约第50条离开欧盟。

英国fintech行业开始考虑这一决定引起的形势变化将对他们自身、对他们的客户(金融服务公司和中小型企业)以及整个经济产生什么影响。

Stephen Burke——资产管理软件和专业咨询公司Cordium集团发展总监

前方将是一条崎岖不平的脱欧道路。公投结果后,我们就一直敦促我们的客户竭力构建更加弹性的商业模式,虽然我们希望脱欧不会带来任何严重问题,而是开启许多新的机会。

英国资产管理行业的规模比紧跟其后的三大欧洲金融中心加起来的还大。英国资产管理行业几十年发展下来有着深厚的技能和知识储备,我们认为在可见的未来这个行业不会离开伦敦。大多数公司最担心的就是如何吸引和留住人才。虽然英国和欧盟其他27个国家决心要做出正确的选择,但一切尘埃落定仍需时间。

其他令人担心的主要是代销公司需要通过在卢森堡或爱尔兰设立新的驻点或构建欧盟27国(EU27)代销能力来创建EU27基金。我们也听说有些欧盟境内的投资者正在考虑在英国设立新的办公室以确保获得最佳投资的能力。

当然欧盟之外也有很多机会,已有讨论发展额外的法律框架来服务非欧盟客户。英国对冲基金行业大部分都提供开曼群岛基金,因此有机会发展一个额外的非欧盟另类投资基金管理(AIFM)框架。

Cordium向运营爱尔兰或卢森堡基金的经理提供EU27 AIFM方案,我们也正在探索怎样才能最佳支持脱欧后的代销活动。我们依然呼吁客户尽可能地增加业务弹性以确保脱欧后身处有利地位。

Angus Dent——P2P借贷公司ArchOver CEO

特蕾莎.梅启动脱欧程序标志着英国企业历劫的开始。随不确定性而来的是投资减少和增长停滞。没有强劲的投资,企业将无法在不可预测的脱欧后市场中生存。

中小型公司在脱欧时段里将尤其寸步难行。如果启动条约后投资和借贷水平下降,那明日的企业家们将没有机会大放异彩,因为他们没有资金来发展公司进而也无法刺激我们经济增长。

因此我们必须支持本土企业。我们必须让他们知道除了惶惶不安的银行以外,他们还可以从别处获得帮助。另类金融机构对于帮助中小型企业保持健康的现金流至关重要。这段风云变化过后,P2P借贷平台的作用愈发重要,让企业能够快速获得保持自身实力所需的资金。

我们所有人必须将脱欧视为一个机会。中小型企业应该使用P2P快速融资来发展业务,以免被不确定性拖垮。

Matt Byrne——fintech借贷公司FastPay英国总监

Jeremy Corbyn最近将英国延付成风称作为一桩“丑闻”。延付严重影响企业发展。除了传统的银行借贷产品外还有些其他的方法可以有效解决这一问题。脱欧程序启动后,英镑贬值对于外贸的提振基本上肯定会被不确定性带来的影响所抵消。而银行的信贷战略将尤其考虑这些影响,过时的风险模型使得表现良好、高潜力的公司无法获得他们所需且应得的融资。从今天起,中小型企业和创业者必须着眼所有融资选项来发展,因为银行将不可避免地进一步缩紧放贷。

Jeremy Cook——国际支付公司 World First首席经济学家

法国五月大选结束前,我们认为脱欧谈判并不会完全开始。启动第50条并不会改变目前英国的经济事务状况。

英镑仍然是脱欧风险最好的测量器。自脱欧公投后,英镑贸易加权后价值缩水12.8%,严重影响了公司海外贸易,而那些成本以外国货币结算的公司受损最为严重。我们对于英国公司成本压力的分析显示,自6.23公投以来英国公司投入成本平均增加14.2%;公用事业公司成本增加最高(19.9%),因为生产中所用的资本产品价格上升;金融服务公司成本上升最小(6.1%)。这导致消费者价格指数(CPI)处于2013年9月以来最高水平。

英镑现在会怎么样?

很多将取决于英国政府在达成目标方面所取得的早期进展。如果谈判进程一再延误或者令人失望,那市场就会更加担心贸易条款恶化,2017年英镑可能再贬值5-7%。如果真是这样,英国经济的支柱:中小型企业的压力将会进一步增加。

两年脱欧倒计时现在正式开始。国际公司未来两年可以简单获利,但那些没有被保护的、没有主动性的或没有任何意识的公司也很有可能因接下来的货币变动而受损。

Jake Moeller——汤森路透Lipper 英国投资研究部负责人

脱欧公投后,净资金流动显示避险行为发生明显变化,投资者从股票转向了短期资金市场基金。英镑资金市场和美元资金市场都由机构基金主导。资金流出最多的10个板块中8个是股票类,流入最多的10个中7个是现金或债券类。

这些变化并不能只归结于脱欧,比如欧洲股票资金流出部分原因可能是脱欧,还有部分可能是欧洲地缘政治因素。而且美国总统大选引起的波动突增无疑惊吓到了全球的投资者。

投资者对于英国金边债券基金的喜爱部分原因是脱欧引发的不确定性。金边债券收益一向较低,因此很难吸引关注收益的投资者。现在信贷违约周期拉长,信贷对这类投资者更有吸引力。

多数债券投资者希望收益率高点,因而‘全球债券高收益’基金和较短期的‘欧元债券-短期’基金很受欢迎。

由于脱欧影响,英国‘商业资产’基金已流失近15亿英镑资金,但资金外逃目前至少已稳定下来,大多数这类基金已恢复买卖。

Lee Murphy——会计软件Pandle所有者

启动脱欧程序也许会让一些英国中小型企业开始考量脱欧对他们业务的影响,但我认为没什么好怕的,小企业不会受到影响。

新闻公布后,英镑会应声稍有下跌,投资者和公司将意识到脱欧正在来临。但这一下跌是暂时的,因为投资者会在低价大量买入英镑,随之英镑就会回升。

启动第50条最令人担心的就是未来的脱欧,这是一件所有人都无法准备的事件,就像是潘多拉之盒。FSB一项研究显示,如果施加关税,那1/4出口的小企业将不再和欧盟进行贸易。这会导致一些公司搬去爱尔兰或甚至是苏格兰(如果苏格兰进行公投)。但与其他市场的交易会增加。同一份研究显示,49%的小企业的首选将是美国,其次是澳大利亚(29%)和中国(28%)。不知道脱欧最终结果是不可能为你公司做准备的,而且欧盟中许多未来的重要选举也会影响脱欧结果。

With Article 50 being enacted this week, the fintech industry is considering what the new landscape created by the UK formally announcing its intentions to leave the EU will mean for themselves, their clients, both financial services and SMEs, and the economy.

Stephen Burke – Group Corporate Development Director of asset management software and consultancy specialist Cordium:

We are now on the road to Brexit and a bumpy one it will be. Since the vote we have been urging clients to focus on building flexibility into their business models, although we hope that there will be no insurmountable Brexit problems, and possibly many new opportunities.

The UK Portfolio Management industry is bigger than the next three largest European centres, added together. It has been built up over many decades and has a depth of skills and knowledge. It is our view that it will not be leaving London any day soon. The biggest concern that most firms have is attracting and retaining talented people. While the UK and the EU27 both seem to be committed to doing the right thing it may be some time before this is settled.

Other concerns come down to distribution firms needing to create EU27 funds by setting up new structures in Luxembourg or Ireland or having an EU27 distribution capability (for existing funds). We also hear that some investors based on the Continent are considering setting up in the UK to retain access to the best investments.

Of course there are many opportunities outside the EU and discussions are already underway to develop an additional legal framework to focus on the needs of non-EU customers. The UK Hedge Fund industry overwhelmingly offers Cayman Islands funds so there is an opportunity to develop an additional non-EU AIFM framework.

Cordium has an EU27 AIFM solution available for managers with Irish or Luxembourg funds, and we are looking at how we best support distribution activity post Brexit. We continue to advocate that clients retain as much flexibility as they can in their business to ensure they are optimally positioned post Brexit.

Angus Dent – CEO of peer-to-peer lending firm ArchOver:

Theresa May triggering Article 50 is the start of a serious trial for UK enterprise. With uncertainty comes a decline in investment and the threat of growth halting altogether. Without strong investment, businesses will be unable to keep their heads above water in an unpredictable post-Brexit market.

SMEs will find this an especially daunting period. If investment and lending levels drop following Article 50, tomorrow’s entrepreneurs will remain in the shadows, lacking the cash to drive their businesses and our economy forward.

To offset that we must support our home-grown businesses. We must let them know there’s help available beyond the nervous banking sector. There’s a key role for alternative finance to play in helping SME borrowers maintain healthy cash flow. Through this period of change, peer-to-peer lending platforms can assist even more than before, giving businesses quick access to the funding they need to put themselves in a position of strength.

We must all treat Brexit as an opportunity. SMEs must use quick access to peer-to-peer funds to fire up their businesses - and avoid being dragged down by uncertainty.

Matt Byrne – UK Director of fintech lending firm FastPay:

Jeremy Corbyn recently described the culture of late payments in the UK a ‘scandal’. Whilst delayed payments can heavily affect business growth, there are ways to successfully manage the issue beyond traditional high-street lending products. With the triggering of Article 50, the perceived silver lining of the weak pound incentive for international trade is almost certainly negated by the impact of uncertainty, and this is ultimately what will be at the forefront of the banks’ credit strategy as their antiquated risk models deny performing and high potential businesses the credit they need and deserve. From today, it is more important than ever that SME owners and start-up founders clue up on the full range of financing options available to them to fuel business growth as banks inevitably further tighten lending practices.

Jeremy Cook – Chief Economist at international payments company World First:

Given we do not expect the negotiations to begin in earnest until after the French election has concluded in May, today’s announcement is unlikely to change the current state of UK economic affairs.

The pound remains the acute barometer of Brexit risk. Since the EU referendum sterling has weakened by 12.8% on a trade-weighted basis, which has acutely affected businesses trading overseas, and it is those businesses facing costs in foreign currencies that are hurting the most. World First’s own analysis of cost pressures on businesses in the UK shows that the average firm is facing a 14.2% increase in input costs since the June 23rd vote. Utilities firms have felt the largest price rise in the basket of capital goods used in production at 19.9% whilst at the opposite end of the scale financial services companies have experienced a 6.1% increase in costs over the same period. It is little wonder then that CPI is at its highest since September 2013.

What now for sterling?

Much will depend on the early progress the UK government is able to make against its stated objectives. A negotiation process marred with delay and disappointment will increase market fears of a worsening of trade terms and could see a decline in the pound of another 5-7% through the rest of 2017. If that happens, the pressures on Britain’s SMEs, the backbone of the UK economy, will increase further.

The clock has started and two years of negotiations and ratification begin now. International businesses can easily benefit from the next two years, but there is ample opportunity for the unprotected, uninitiated or the simply unaware to be hurt by the ensuing currency movements.

Jake Moeller – Head Lipper UKI Research at Thomson Reuters Lipper

Since the Brexit vote there has been a marked shift in risk aversion with estimated net flows clearly showing investors moving away from equities and into short-term money market funds. It’s worth noting that both Money Market GBP and Money Market USD have been dominated by institutional funds. Eight of the bottom ten sectors for outflows are in equity classifications. Seven of the most popular sectors have been cash or bond classifications.

It’s difficult to only attribute these flows to a Brexit effect. For example outflows from European equities could be driven party by Brexit but also by other European geopolitical issues. Furthermore, there has been a spike in volatility around the US presidential elections which will have undoubtedly spooked investors globally.

It is likely that the support for UK Gilt funds has been driven by some Brexit uncertainty. With their record low yields, Gilts would not be attractive to income investors with the current extended credit default cycle making credit more attractive.

More generally bond investors will be seeking yield which is reflected in the popularity of funds in the Bond Global High Yield and broad-based shorter duration Bond Euro-Short Term.

We know that UK Commercial Property funds which have seen net outflows of some £1.5 billion have been as a direct result of Brexit but these outflows have now at least steadied with most of the fund suspensions now lifted.

Lee Murphy – Owner of accountancy software Pandle:

Though it may prompt some UK SMES to start thinking about the implications of Brexit on their business, the triggering of Article 50 should be nothing to fear and if I’m honest, I don’t think it will impact small businesses.

We can expect the pound to drop slightly following this news announcement as it will remind investors and businesses that Brexit is coming, however this dip should be just that, a temporary lull which will soon bounce back when buyers snap up the currency at a lower price.

What’s most concerning about the triggering of Article 50 is the impending Brexit - something that no one can prepare for and could be likened to pandora’s box. As research from the FSB has uncovered, a quarter of small businesses that export would be deterred from trading with the EU should tariffs be imposed. This may see some companies relocating to Ireland, or even Scotland should there be a Scottish referendum. Or equally, we could experience a greater level of trade with other markets, the research finding that 49% of SME’s top preference would be the US, followed by Australia (29%) and China (28%). Without knowing the outcome it’s impossible to prepare your business, and there are many important elections coming up in the EU that will impact this Brexit also.


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