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美国业界如何看待2018年金融科技产业动向?

区块链国际资讯

美国业界如何看待2018年金融科技产业动向?

2017年可以说是金融科技产业迅速发展的一年,即使是那些毫无兴趣的投资者可能也略有关注过。在这一年中出现了一系列里程碑意义的事件,比如比特币期货交易出现、机器人投顾Betterment投资金额超100亿美元等等。

面对即将到来的2018年,金融科技产业能否继续增长势头?哪些领域已经处于泡沫边缘?就这些问题,我们采访了几位金融科技产业的资深人士,让我们听听他们的看法。

关于加密货币热潮

投资博客Abnormal Returns创始人兼编辑Tadas Viskanta——"我想我们都认识到了区块链根本性改变商业的潜力。但对于一个天天关注这个领域的人来说,现在这种热度让人受不了。我需要一段没有区块链的时间。"

Fintech Circle创始人兼CEO Susanne Chishti——"比特币投资绝对被炒过了,我认为2018年比特币价格会有大波动。加密货币确实是我们这个时代一大发明,2018年会有很多新应用。但投资比特币仅应该占用用于高风险投资的那部分资产。”

风投公司HigherOrder合伙人Ankur Consul——"虽然区块链和比特币本身的设计目的是为了创造一个独立于政府、银行和公司的经济体系,但这些机构组织会采取大动作,在这个领域建立根基。我们认为独立的加密货币有发展前景,只要背后有可行的经济模式和有形资产。未来可能每一个行业立基商业都会有自己的货币。"

Shift Markets COO Matthew Miller——"2018年会出现更多的加密货币交易所。比如很多人喜欢拿Coinbase来举例,因为他们如今已经拥有10万账户。那我也可以开只有1000个账户的交易所,我一样可以为这些客户提供服务。" Shift Markets定位是帮助客户创建自己的加密货币交易所。

智能投顾行业可能被过度夸大

BettermentCEO兼创始人Jon Stein——"很多人认为大型现有机构(基金公司、银行等)自己开发的"智能投顾"必然可以吸引资金。其中有几家确实会,但我们认为另一些会发现极其困难,因为他们的客户体验不符合消费者需求。"

Pinnacle Advisory Group合伙人兼研究总监以及Nerd's Eye View金融规划博客发布者Michael Kitces——"智能投顾本身已经并且将来也会继续被夸大。你看一下纯智能投顾(如Betterment和Wealthfront)吸纳的资产,实际是很少的:六年来管理资产总金额只有不到200亿美元,比Vanguard一个月吸纳的资金都少。市场份额小于0.1%。"

投资博客Abnormal Returns创始人兼编辑Tadas Viskanta——"我们没有认识到智能投顾这种模式将怎样改变未来资金管理方式。类比一下媒体。10-15年前,博客就是这样的"东西",主流媒体想要尽可能地无视。而现在博客已经是每个人表达想法的方式了(长于280字)。在线自动投资解决方案也是如此。五年前,人们认为机器人投顾风险大,只适合20多岁没钱的年轻人。现在每一家大投资公司都有某种形式的自动解决方案。 ”

关于女性、人工智能、大数据和保险

Fintech Circle CEO兼创始人Susanne Chishti—— "2018年会是女性大放光彩和产业多样性爆发的一年。这些杰出的女性fintech企业家、投资者和思想领导人终将打破现在男性垄断的科技和金融产业。现在金融政治界最具权力的男性比如就要求会议组织者选择女性讲者,否则他们也不去。"

Finleap CEO兼联合创始人 Ramin Niroumand—— "目前,关于人工智能的热潮比真正成就更大。潜力无限,因此AI仍将是2018年的主题。AI需要时间以及很多数据,这样才能探测出某种行为。"

AlgoDynamix CEO兼联合创始人 Jeremy Sosabowski——"大数据(质量和数量越来越不可靠)直接就是分析结果或商业案例了,这种夸张想法正在慢慢消散。现在质量-数量平衡终于往好的方向发展了,如果配合上正确的机器学习就更好了。"( 该公司旨在于市场大抛售前提供警告)。

投资博客Abnormal Returns创始人兼编辑Tadas Viskanta——"我不知道这算是意外,或许又只是个人希望,保险行业目前还未被Fintech触及。当然有些例外,但我们金融生活中有许多方面已经可以被颠覆,比如居家、汽车、生活、健康、残疾等。有非常非常多的数据可以用来做更好更精确的风险评估,而这可以为消费者提供价格更好的服务。"

It’s been quite a year for the fintech industry. Even jaded investors probably raised their eyebrows once or twice.

The 2017 milestones for fintech — that’s short for financial technology — have ranged from the launch of bitcoin futures XBTH8, +3.64% to robo adviser Betterment exceeding $10 billion in investor money.

Could the new year bring more big developments? Or major flops?

We asked players in the growing industry about what looks overhyped as 2018 nears — as well as what appears underappreciated. We also asked them for their fintech predictions, including potential surprises.

Read on for their responses.

Takes on the crypto craze, including forecasts

“Bitcoin, blockchain, basta! I think we all recognize the potential for the blockchain to fundamentally change how we do business, but the hype is simply overwhelming for someone who looks at this stuff on a daily basis. I need a blockchain vacation.”—Tadas Viskanta, founder and editor of investment blog Abnormal Returns

“Investing in bitcoin is clearly overhyped, and I expect to see large fluctuations in price in 2018. So the key is understanding that cryptocurrencies are fantastic inventions of our times, and we will see many use cases in 2018. But investing in bitcoin now should only be done with the part of one’s asset allocation mix which is reserved for high-risk investments.”—Susanne Chishti, CEO and founder of Fintech Circle

“While blockchain and bitcoin were an attempt to create an economic system that was independent of governments, banks and corporations, we will see a big move from these bodies to play a more significant role in this space. We believe independent cryptocurrencies have a future and are here to stay as long they have a viable economic model and the token is backed by a tangible value. We imagine a future where each industry niche will have its own currency.”—Ankur Consul, partner at venture-capital firm HigherOrder VC

“You’re going to see a lot more [crypto] exchanges coming to the marketplace. You see Coinbase — everyone likes to throw out the 100,000 accounts in a day statistic, [saying] ‘... OK, if they get 100,000, then maybe I just get 1,000. I can still start my own exchange with 1,000 customers.’” —Matthew Miller, COO of Shift Markets, which aims to help clients start their own cryptocurrency exchanges

Reports of robos’ asset gathering may be greatly exaggerated

“There is an assumption that the large incumbents’ (fund companies, banks, etc.) ‘robo advisers’ are guaranteed to gather assets. A few certainly will, but we’d expect some of them to struggle to gain assets when their customer experiences don’t connect with consumer needs.”—Jon Stein, CEO and founder of Betterment

“Robo advisers themselves have been and continue to be grossly overhyped. If you look at the ACTUAL adoption of assets for the pure robo advisers (e.g. Betterment and Wealthfront), the assets are just trivial. Combined they’re less than $20 billion of AUM [assets under management] after six years. That’s less than Vanguard gets in a typical month now. It’s less than 0.1% market share.”—Michael Kitces, partner and research director at Pinnacle Advisory Group and publisher of the Nerd’s Eye View financial planning blog

“We don’t appreciate the degree to which the robo-adviser model has simply become how money will be managed going forward. The analogy I draw is to the media. Ten to 15 years ago blogs were this other ‘thing’ that the mainstream media wanted to ignore as best it could. Now blogs/blogging is how everyone communicates their ideas (longer than 280 characters). The same goes for online, automated investment solutions. Five years ago, robo advisers were viewed as risky and only appropriate for 20-somethings with no money. Now nearly every big investment firm has some sort of automated solution.”—Tadas Viskanta, founder and editor of investment blog Abnormal Returns

Other fintech predictions: Women, AI, big data, insurance

“2018 will be the year of women and diversity. There are so many excellent female fintech entrepreneurs, investors and thought leaders out there, and they will finally break through our male-dominated technology and finance industries. ...The most powerful male leaders in finance and politics are demanding now that conference organizers, for example, select female speakers, otherwise they will not speak either.”—Susanne Chishti, CEO and founder of Fintech Circle

“So far, the hype about artificial intelligence is even bigger than the actual successes right now. The potential is still infinite, and therefore it will remain the topic in 2018. AI needs time and, above all, a lot of data on the basis of which a behavior can be detected in the first place.”—Ramin Niroumand, CEO and co-founder of FinLeap, a “company builder” that has launched a number of fintech companies

“The hype that big data (of increasingly dubious quality and quantity) directly equates to insights and business cases is finally dying down. We are finally reaching a much better quality-versus-quantity equilibrium, even more so if used in conjunction with the right type of machine learning.”—Jeremy Sosabowski, CEO and co-founder of AlgoDynamix, which aims to provide warnings before big market selloffs

“I don’t know if this counts as a surprise, or merely a hope, but insurance has largely been untouched by fintech. There are some exceptions of course, but this big chunk of our financial lives is ripe for being disrupted whether it be home, auto, life, health, disability, etc. There is simply too much data out there than can be used to make better, more accurate, risk assessments which should translate into better pricing and services for everyone.”—Tadas Viskanta, founder and editor of investment blog Abnormal Returns


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