2. 不到15家独角兽会上市,甚至可能只有10家。这些公司能够不断从国际投资者那募集到几乎无限的现金。这种快速获得现金的这种能力意味着许多独角兽无需上市,而其他公司的运营基础可能还无法满足上市要求。而还有一些估价超出了自身真实情况,因此需要时间在私营市场发展以符合估值后才能向公众提供投资回报。所以,许多独角兽公司将继续收拢双翼,保持私营状态。


1) 针对风投资产类别的资本数额达历史新高且无减退迹象。我们可能正面临着一场现金泡沫,有太多的金钱追逐各个公司。超大型融资轮将继续保持美元走强。

2) 风投支持的公司数量史无前例地多。现在创立一家公司成本如此低,远离群体的成本又如此高,因此公司为了筹资实现发展潜力会继续看向风投资本。

3) 科技在产业中的应用潜能已被释放。科技刚刚开始影响一些新领域,如金融服务、医疗、保险、运输和农业。慢慢地,其他许多领土都会被影响,2018年及以后会有大量新公司形成。

4. 首次代币发行(ICO)热将会消退而且不会取代风投资本。ICO相关数据显示,2017年通过ICO募集的资金达50亿美元,而风投支持的公司筹得了超过710亿美元。2018年,随着各国证监会监管力度加强,ICO数量将继续减少。

5. 加密货币狂热将平息。过去一个季度,比特币和其他加密货币势头惊人,产生了不可持续的超高投资回报。尚未实现的收益已经被考虑在内,加密货币市场蓬勃发展,但18年夏天前市场就会冷静下来,大型调整将发生,那是对这个领域的最大考验。

6. 风投支持的公司清算或出售将继续。其中一些出售价格将低于该公司最后一轮融资估值。这其实很正常。风投生态系统的自然规则就是每天都有公司获得融资或破产。仅美国就有18000家风投支持的创企,它们互相竞争资本、人才、空间和客户。如果风投资金量回归到历史常态,这些公司不可能全部存活。创业家现在应该谨慎使用他们珍贵的融资,对于商业模型中的任何一个假设都不能想当然,努力用更少的钱达成更多的事。他们必须让自己脱引而出,这样才能为下一步大发展筹集资本。

2017 saw a rebound in overall VC funding, approaching dotcom-era amounts. This was fueled by continued investor enthusiasm over the venture asset class, including new late-stage growth funds. The sectors that showed the largest growth were those in the business and financial services and healthcare sectors. In 2018, I expect VC investments levels to remain high, but several developments will impact the ecosystem.

Here’s what I see happening over the next 12 months.

1. The IPO market for venture-backed companies will continue to open up. Many have predicted an IPO market comeback for some time. But they’ve considered predominantly tech-focused unicorns. But I expect biotech and life sciences to take the lead. With a new wave of innovation in areas like cell editing, and immunotherapy for oncology and infectious diseases, the biotech and life sciences sectors will be ready to raise money in the public markets to help realize their potential.

2. Fewer than 15 unicorns will go public — and the number could be as low as 10. These companies continue to raise almost limitless amounts of cash from an ever-increasing number of global investors. The availability of quick cash means many unicorns won’t need to go public. Others don’t yet have the proper infrastructure to operate effectively as public companies. Still others have raised money at valuations ahead of their metrics and will need time in the private market to grow into their valuations so they can provide a return in the public markets. For these reasons, most of the unicorn herd will continue to wait in the wings and stay private.

3. Venture funding will continue to hover at near-record levels. We’ll see continued high levels of VC funding throughout 2018 for a number of reasons:

The amount of capital raised for the venture asset class is at an all-time high and shows no sign of slowing. We could be in a cash bubble, with too much money chasing companies. Mega-funding events will continue to keep the dollar levels raised high.

The number of companies in the venture pipeline has never been greater. It’s never been cheaper to start a company — or more expensive to break away from the pack. These realities will help keep venture funding strong as companies will continue to raise capital to realize their potential.

The genie is out of the bottle for technology’s enablement of industries.  Technology is just starting to impact several new sectors, including financial services, healthcare, insurance, transportation, and agriculture. This trend has a long tail and will ensure a significant amount of new company formation in 2018 and beyond.

4. Initial coin offerings (ICOs) will pull back, and won’t replace venture funding. According to ICO data, almost $5 billion was raised through ICOs in 2017, while over $71 billion was raised by venture-backed companies. In 2018 we will see a decrease in ICOs as the SEC continues to scrutinize these activities and starts to regulate them more like IPOs to protect investors.

5. Cryptocurrencies will cool down. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a tear this past quarter, producing incredible, unsustainable investor returns. With unrealized gains being posted, this market has assumed a life of its own but will start to cool before the summer. There will be a major correction, which will be the biggest test for the entire sector.

6. We will continue to see VC-funded companies fold or be sold. Some of the sales will be below the companies’ last rounds. This won’t be the end of the world. The natural process of the venture ecosystem is that companies are funded and go out of business almost daily. There are more than 18,000 venture-backed startups in the United States alone — all competing for capital, talent, space, and customers. It’s unrealistic to think all of these companies will survive as funding reverts to historical norms. Entrepreneurs will need to be vigilant about how they deploy the precious capital they have raised, challenging every assumption in their models and pressing hard to do more with less. They must distinguish themselves from the crowd and be positioned to raise additional capital to take the next major step in their evolution.







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