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比特币价格或将成为新的股市“恐慌指数”

和所有数字资产一样,比特币的价格波动性也很大。但由这种波动性衍生的模式却可能对传统金融市场造成深远影响。

恐慌指数(VIX)是衡量市场波动性的一个既定指标,交易者可以通过这个指数来了解市场参与者的情绪。

VIX分析师以及Equity Armor Investments总裁Brian Stutland认为,通过比特币价格能够提前一个月预测出VIX走势。

他说:

当前的VIX与30天前的比特币价格存在较强联系,30个交易日之前,其已经开始衡量市场的信用风险。这就是加密货币的用处,即成为一种规避银行业信用风险的有效方式。

由于加密货币不受监管,且允许投资者从银行转移资金从而实现降低信用风险的目的,Stutland认为,尽管比特币价格也存在波动性,但投资者很可能通过将资金投入“离线”领域(即不容易受传统金融事件影响的领域)的方式来用比特币规避股市风暴。

有了比特币,投资者能够将资金从银行转移出来,存到自己的钱包里。基本上就是把自己的钱放在自己的枕头下面,只不过是以虚拟货币的形式保存的。

很多人认为,股票投资者会因为比特币的波动性而拒绝使用这种加密货币,转而选择更稳定的避险资产。然而,美国证券交易委员会(SEC)主席Jay Clayton指出,近段时间,比特币的波动性已经小于VIX,这个结论让很多人大吃一惊。

就在最近,比特币的波动性已经不如其它证券那样剧烈,比如VIX产品。

比特币规避信用风险的优势以及其与股市相比较低的波动性已经使得其成为了衡量股市的一个重要指标。

如果分析师所说是正确的,将产生重大影响,这就意味着比特币价格能够成为交易者预测股市表现的标识物。只有时间能够告诉我们这个分析师得出的结论是否正确。但一旦是真的,未来几个星期股市将会走熊。

Like all digital assets, the bitcoin price is notoriously volatile, but a surprising pattern has emerged from that volatility which may have wider ramifications for the traditional finance markets as a whole.

The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, is an established measure of volatility in the overall marketplace long-used by traders to give them an impression of investor fear in the market.

VIX analyst and President of Equity Armor Investments Brian Stutland — better known as the “The Fear Merchant” — believes that the bitcoin price is actually predicting the VIX one month in advance.

Speaking with CNBC, he said:

“There is huge correlation right now between VIX and bitcoin 30 days ago, 30 trading days ago, that is starting to measure out credit risk in the market. That’s what cryptocurrency is becoming. It’s becoming a way to sort of de-risk yourself from credit risk in the banking industry.”

Because cryptocurrencies are largely unregulated and allow investors to move their money off the balance sheets of banks and decrease credit risks, Stutland thinks they may be using bitcoin as a safe haven from the stock market despite the volatility of the former to avoid credit risks by putting their money in a more “off-grid” position.

“Bitcoin is a way to for investors to basically move their money off the balance sheets of banks and into their own wallets,” he added. “Essentially storing their money under their pillow in the form of virtual currency.”

While bitcoin’s reputation as a volatile cryptocurrency may give the impression that stock traders would shun it in favor of a more stable haven, SEC Chairman Jay Clayton pointed out that these days bitcoin is actually less volatile than the VIX, something that may come as a surprise to many.

“Just recently the volatility in bitcoin was not as great as the volatility we’ve seen in other securities, such as the VIX product,” said Clayton.

The benefits of avoiding credit risk plus the median stability provided by bitcoin compared to the stock market overall may have turned bitcoin into a leading indicator in the stock market.

If true, the implications are huge, meaning that the bitcoin price is actually a marker by which traders can predict stock market behavior. As credit risk increases, volatility in the marketplace does as well. Time will tell if the analysis is accurate, but if it is, the stock market is in for a bearish trend over the next few weeks.


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