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加密货币可能并不是什么对抗通胀的好办法

全新的互联网金融模式国际资讯

加密货币可能并不是什么对抗通胀的好办法

如今,当经济不稳定时,不少区块链用户者就会将比特币等加密货币当做应对恶性通货膨胀的一种手段。

但市场中有那么多种加密货币,到底哪个最适合这项任务?事实证明,都不适合。

根据区块链研究部门Diar的数据,没有任何加密货币能够使国家摆脱金融动荡。事实上,大多数加密货币——甚至是像DASH和Litecoin这样的老牌加密货币——都会受到供应膨胀或购买力大幅下降的影响。

这意味着,当你考虑其年度平均值时,实际上每个加密货币在对抗通货膨胀时都是无用的。

为了使加密货币对经济疲软的国家来说有用的,它的购买力需要保持相对稳定。 Diar的数据显示,每个主要的加密货币平台都面临着某种形式的通货膨胀,这种通货膨胀使其无法作为“避风港”。

该报告写道:

Diar [...]计算了实际通货膨胀率,衡量了购买价值的下降。换句话说,通货膨胀率决定某种加密货币可以购买多少实际商品。当通货膨胀率为正时,购买力下降,反之亦然。比特币、XRP、纳米币、EOS、Stellar、Cardano和IOTA同比出现通货紧缩,其余则是通货膨胀。 Nano,其次是Stellar,是同年来通货紧缩最密集的密码。但是,如果我们考虑年初至今的通货膨胀,所有的加密资产都是通货膨胀的。

实际上,这使得加密货币成为避免现实世界经济冲突的一种非常糟糕的选择。

例如,DASH的年初至今价格通胀率为84%。因此,如果你在今年年初购买了价值10,000美元的DASH,现在它的价值仅为1,600美元。

Diar指出,即使是通胀率最低的加密资产之一的比特币,其年初至今的通胀率超过50%。这意味着比特币“存储”的任何值现在都不到一半。相比之下,土耳其里拉最近经历了20%的价值下跌,比比特币更能对冲经济通胀。

最后Diar认为,如果加密货币必须用作对冲经济不稳定的对冲,那最好选用那些是具有预定生成算法的币种。

简而言之,就是那些不会很快增加流通供应的硬币,如NANO、IOTA或Cardano。所有其他平台,包括比特币、比特币现金、Litecoin和Monero,今年的供应通胀率都超过2.5%,并不适用于对抗经济不稳定因素。

研究得出结论:“在经济不确定的时期,可以预期人们宁愿用预定的生成算法转换为加密货币,因为这保证了发行的确定性。虽然这样做无法永远保证价格,但是可以确定的是,这总比一小部分开发人员做出的货币决策更有利。”

Cryptocurrency is often floated as a failsafe for floundering economies. When faced with economic instability, blockchain evangelists are often quick to prescribe Bitcoin (or some other altcoin) as a means of alleviating hyperinflation by being more stable than the local currency.

But which is best suited for the task? Turns out, it’s none of them.

According to data from blockchain research unit Diar, no cryptocurrency wields the power to pull nations out of financial turmoil. Indeed, most coins – even established ones like DASH and Litecoin – suffer from arbitrary supply inflation or massive degradation in purchasing power.

This means that practically every cryptocurrency is useless when it comes to battling inflation, when you consider its yearly average.

In order for a cryptocurrency to be even remotely useful to a nation with a weakening economy, its purchasing power needs to remain relatively stable compared to the fiat one is looking to ditch. Diar’s data shows that every major cryptocurrency platform is dealing with some form of inflation that renders it useless as a “safe-haven.”

The report reads:

Diar […] calculated the actual inflation rate, which measures the fall in the purchasing value. In other words, the inflation rate determines how much of actual goods a certain cryptocurrency can buy. When an inflation rate is positive, the purchasing power declines and vice versa. Bitcoin, XRP, Nano, EOS, Stellar, Cardano and IOTA have been deflationary year-on-year while the rest was inflationary. Nano, followed by Stellar, have been the most deflationary cryptoassets year-on-year. However, if we consider year-to-date inflation, all of the cryptoassets were inflationary.

In reality, this makes cryptocurrency a horrible choice for dodging real-world economic strife.

With Diar’s new data, we see just how useless cryptocurrency projects are as a hedge against economic instability.

For example, DASH’s year-to-date price inflation is listed as 84 percent. As such, if you purchased $10,000 worth of DASH at the start of the year, it is now worth just $1,600, making it an obviously poor choice for an alternative store of value, even for the world’s poorest.

Even Bitcoin, which Diar notes as one of the least inflationary crypto-assets, suffers from a year-to-date inflationary percentage of over 50 percent. This means that any value “stored” by Bitcoin is now worth less than half as much. By comparison, the Turkish Lira, which recently experienced a 20 percent drop in value, is a better hedge against economic inflation than Bitcoin.

Remember that next time someone suggests cryptocurrency as a safe-haven for the world’s worst economies.

In the end, if a cryptocurrency simply must be used as a hedge against economic instability, Diar point out the best ones are those with a predetermined generation algorithm.

Simply put, those are the coins that won’t be increasing circulating supplies any time soon, such as NANO, IOTA, or Cardano. All other platforms, including Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, and Monero, have supply inflation rates over 2.5 percent this year, making them particularly unsuitable.

“In a time of economic uncertainty, it can be expected that people would rather switch to a cryptocurrency with a predetermined generation algorithm, which guarantees certainty of issuance,” the research concludes. “While the price can never be guaranteed, certainty is more favorable than a monetary policy decision being made by a small group of developers.”


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