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Imran Khan当选对巴基斯坦金融科技的影响

国际资讯

Imran Khan当选对巴基斯坦金融科技的影响

巴基斯坦2018年竞选活动遭到暴力袭击,还受到操纵投票的指控,领导正义运动党的Imran Khan赢得了大选的胜利。他领导的政党未获绝对多数,不得不组成联合政府,其经济政策受到了质疑。

根据旨在振兴经济增长的100天议程,Khan承诺振兴制造业,促进中小企业细分市场快速发展。正义运动党还计划公布"减税直接支持方案,使能源价格与区域竞争对手一致,清理积压的退款/退税"。

该政策有望消除小公司成功道路上的障碍,因此对巴基斯坦金融科技行业这可能是个利好消息,但是,声明表示适用于"制造业,以便推动本国企业参与国际市场竞争,促进出口,创造就业机会",但这一举措的方向是正确的。

Khan也承诺建立一个"商业领袖委员会"改善巴基斯坦的"经商环境",以鼓励投资,推动出口,"5年内将国家的营商环境排名从当前的第147位提升进入前100位。"

金融普惠对巴基斯坦而言意义重大,Khan的就职承诺中也包含了实现金融普惠理念,他表示将制定"计划将银行存款基础增加到GDP的50%,以鼓励储蓄。启动建立基础设施贷款银行(IPDF模型),用于大型项目。"

如果Khan信守承诺,巴基斯坦金融科技将将迎来发展机遇。今年年初,国家电信监管机构PTA采取行动,使人们可以通过移动电话网络进行在线交易,过程得以简化,目前巴基斯坦金融技术处于这样的阶段。

此外,PTA计划本月底为第三方服务提供商颁发许可证,增加网络可换性,以便巴基斯坦境内更多的人享受金融普惠,并最大限度地减少欺诈行为。巴基斯坦等类似国家不应该完全废弃旧系统,建设新系统应当作为一种新选择,这样拥有手机能访问互联网的人就可以完成移动支付,这一点也同样重要。

然而,许多人认为巴基斯坦很快将迎来经济危机,在油价高企和贸易战期间,进口和债务导致国家缓冲减少,货币贬值四次,是经济危急还是经济复苏,就看能否马上得到国际货币基金组织的救助了。巴基斯坦卡拉奇商业委员会首席执行官Ehsan Malik表示:"政府和反对派应该团结起来,解决当前经济下滑过程中制造业的当务之急和根本缺陷。" 然而,由于之前已经从国际货币基金组织获得了贷款,再次获得救助难度会更大,巴基斯坦必须首先解决自身的缺陷。

Imran Khan has claimed victory in the 2018 Pakistani election for his PTI party after a campaign that has been marred by violence and allegations of vote rigging. Although Khan's party is expected to fall short of an overall majority and would have to form a coalition, his economic policies have been questioned.

As per his 100 Day Agenda with an aim of revitalizing economic growth, Khan promised to revive manufacturing and facilitate rapid growth of the SME sector. Expanding on this, it states that the party intends on announcing "an immediate support package of reduced taxes, bring energy prices in alignment with regional competitors, clear the backlog of refunds/rebates".

This could be beneficial for the Pakistani fintech industry as it would remove some of the obstacles in the way for smaller companies wanting to succeed, however, the manifesto only states that this would apply to the "manufacturing industry in order to compete in international markets, boost exports, and create jobs," but it is a step in the right direction.

In a similar way, Khan's pledge to build a 'Council of Business Leaders' in order to improve 'Doing Business' in Pakistan so that investment is encouraged and those from the country who are overseas can grow exports by "bringing the country within the top 100 in Doing Business rankings in 5 years from the current position of 147th."

Financial inclusion, as has always been important in Pakistan, also made its way into Khan's pledges and he stated that he would develop "a plan to increase deposit base of banks to 50 percent of GDP to encourage higher savings. Initiate establishment of infrastructure lending bank (IPDF model) for large projects."

From here, we can see that if Khan keeps his promises, Pakistani fintech has the potential to grow, but at what stage is financial technology in the country at the moment? At the start of this year, the telecom regulator PTA made moves in order to ensure that online transactions across all mobile phone networks are made available and simplified.

In addition, by the end of this month, the PTA planned to award Third Party Service Providers licenses which would increase interchangeability between different networks and in turn, make sure that more people across Pakistan are financially included and minimize fraud. It is also important here to say that old systems should not be completely removed from countries like these, but new ones should be implemented as a choice, so those who are able to own a mobile phone and have access to the Internet can make payments in this way.

However, many believe that Pakistan will be soon welcoming an economic crisis, especially as the country's buffers have decreased because of imports and debt, which later led to the devaluation of the currency four times - during a time of high oil prices and trade war issues. Could a bailout from the International Monetary Fund be imminent?

Ehsan Malik, CEO at the Pakistan Business Council in Karachi said: "The government and the opposition should unite to use it to address the immediate problem and fundamental flaws that have seen manufacturing's role in the economy decline." However, because of previous loans from the IMF, this time round it could be a little more difficult and Pakistan would have to address flaws first.

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