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美联储加息在即,分析师称加密货币恐将遭沉击

美国联邦储备委员会(简称美联储)的加息可能会对通货紧缩的加密货币造成沉重打击,由a16z和Coinbase支持的Compound的创始人Robert Leshner对美国《财富》杂志说。

美联储预计将提高利率

在采访中,Leshner指出,到目前为止,加密货币一直存在于低利率的美国经济中。随着这一趋势开始逆转,美联储的一系列加息举措让人们对未知领域感到困惑。

目前,在定于11月8日召开的美联储下次会议上,美联储宣布利率提高200-225个基点的可能性超过90%。

Leshner相信加密货币市场会受到美联储最近加息决定的影响。

Leshner认为这将对加密市场造成沉重打击。他表示:

“我们一直都知道加密货币生存在一个基本为零或低利率的环境中。这是一个宽松宽松的货币环境,资本在这里大量存在,在任何地方都在寻找回报。我们终于开始进入一个利率不断上升的环境,而加密货币从未见过这种环境。这将对很多加密资产的价格构成潜在挑战,就像对很多资产(包括股票)一样。”

如果我们把钱存到银行里,就可以获得利息。银行通过把我们的钱借给别人来支付利息。这显然是一个非常简单的解释,而且在近时期,我们所能获得的利息一直都非常少。

也许这就是为什么没有人问这个问题,“为什么我们不能对我们的加密资产做同样的事情?为什么没有人愿意向持有我们的比特币支付利息呢?”

为了纠正这种情况,自称是利率专家的Leshner成立了一家公司Compound,并且获得了来自著名风险投资公司Andreessen Horowitz(a16z), Coinbase Ventures的支持。该公司允许代币持有者存储其加密货币并赚取利息。

尽管目前不支持比特币,不过该公司已经上线4种代币并且正在寻求更多。目前正在运行用户投票决定添加哪种稳定币。

稳定币入场

Leshner预测会有大量稳定币流入市场,并声称很快会有超过50个种——这与19世纪许多美国银行开始发行自己版本的美元类似。他发现,如此多的公司争相进入稳定币这一领域并不奇怪,因为发行方明显可以从中获益。而且,今年9月份,纽约金融服务局批准了两种受监管的稳定币: Gemini Dollar (GUSD)和Paxos Standard (PAX)。

谈到为何对基于区块链的法定货币会有强劲需求,因为由于大量的外汇交易商,传统货币目前有一个巨大的流动市场。Leshner指出:

“法定货币代币化的优点是它为货币带来了透明性和可编程性。当美元基于区块链开发时,会有更多的创新出现。”

Robert Leshner, a chartered financial analyst and the founder of Compound, a San Francisco-based firm focused on creating interest rate markets for crypto assets, recently told Fortune that one of the problems with digital currencies is that you cannot earn interest on them.

Backed By Andreessen Horowitz, Coinbase Ventures

Leshner’s response to this was to launch Compound - a company which holds users’ cryptocurrency and pays them a rate of return. Backed by investments from venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, and Coinbase Ventures, Compound lets users deposit their basic attention tokens (BAT), augur (REP), 0x (ZRX), and wrapped Ethereum (WETH) - in order to earn interest on them.

Leshner said his company is planning to add support for other cryptocurrencies in the future - including stablecoins. He thinks stablecoins, which are backed 1-to-1 with USD, are easy to create and there are many crypto traders interested in buying them.

However, Leshner noted that companies issuing stablecoins are actually borrowing money for free from the buyers as they are not paying any interest. These companies are also charging usage or transaction fees when they issue stablecoins.

Leshner, an economics graduate from the University of Pennsylvania, explained that many firms are supplying stablecoins because it’s a lucrative business. As CryptoGlobe reported in September, two regulated stablecoins were launched: Gemini Dollar (GUSD) and Paxos Standard (PAX).

There May Soon Be Over 50 Stablecoins

Since then, many other companies and organizations have announced that they are planning to introduce their own stablecoin. Leshner has predicted there could soon be over 50 actively traded stablecoins in the cryptocurrency market - which would be similar to the situation when many US banks in 19th century began issuing their own version of the dollar.

When questioned about whether the US Federal Reserve would start issuing its own digital dollar, Leshner said it was not something that would happen anytime soon.

Commenting on why there may be strong demand for blockchain-based fiat currencies, as there is currently a huge liquid market for traditional currencies due to the large number of forex traders, Leshner noted:

The advantage of tokenization is it brings transparency and programmability to currency. When dollars are open to blockchain there’s so much more innovation that can occur.

——Robert Leshner

He explained that blockchain-based tokenized currencies have the ability to interact with smart contracts - which gives them more functionality compared to fiat money which is limited to serving as a medium of exchange.

Interestingly, Leshner believes the cryptocurrency market will be affected by the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to increase interest rates. He said:

We’ve always known crypto in an environment of essentially zero or low interest rates. And that’s an environment of easy and loose money where capital has been prolific and looking for returns wherever it was found. We’re finally starting to enter an environment of rising interest rates which crypto has never seen before and it’s going to be potentially challenging to the price of a lot of crypto assets just like it will be for a lot assets in general, including equities.

——Robert Leshner

This means that cryptocurrencies will be impacted by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies in the foresseable future, according to Leshner

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