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为什么银行业没有跟风收购加密创企?

据福布斯11月13日报道,硅谷风投德丰杰 (DFJ)的创始人Tim Draper和比特币钱包公司Blockchain的 CEO Peter Smith上周在接受采访时表示,高盛这一类华尔街大银行不是不想收购加密创企,而是如果要收购一家知名的加密货币公司,他们得把老本儿全部押进去,才买得起。

以下是Tim Draper和Peter Smith在面临记者采访时,回答内容的部分节选译文:

银行不是不想收购加密创企,而是为时已晚

Peter Smith:由于合作伙伴关系,我已经和这些机构谈过多年了。在收购加密创企这个问题上,他们面临的挑战是得把全部资金押进去,才买得起一家大型的加密货币公司。

Tim Draper:对于这一点,我也表示赞同。对于高盛(这一类华尔街大银行)来说,现为时已晚。通常情况下他们是以法币的方式进行收购,如果想要收购加密创企,那么最好从购买比特币开始。如果高盛意识到他们只能用比特币收购Coinbase,而不能使用法币,那么他们就会不乐意。

对于COINBASE,如果不缺钱,上市的意义就不大

Tim Draper:对于加密创企来说,上市的意义在哪里? Coinbase可能应该尽可能的保持私有,这样的话,我认为它将价值一万亿美元。

Peter Smith:我猜测在圈内,唯一需要上市的是那些缺乏资金的加密公司。所以我认为很多公司在早期都会面临很大的上市压力,尽管事实上并没有多大意义。

比特币将走向哪里?

Tim Draper:在全世界价值86万亿的法币面前,我们正在讨论的是市场份额将占比5%、每枚价值将达到25000美元的比特币。虽然看起来是如此微不足道,但是如果我们真的可以用它在星巴克买咖啡的话,一个全新的世界就可以开拓出来。另外,我对比特币的在2022年的价格预测依然为250000美元,也可能会是2023年,总之它绝对会到达那个价位。但由于市场操作的存在。我不确定它将如何到达那里。和一年前的平均价格相比,比特币在今年已经涨了一些。(今年4月份,Tim Draper曾预测比特币价格将在2022年达到25万美元)

Peter Smith:我预计,明年的加密货币市场在大部分时间依然会处于降温状态。这个市场尚处于婴儿期,无论是涨到一万亿美元,还是它的一半,亦或是1/4,相对于全球金融业而言,这个市场仍然非常小,这意味着未来会它有很大的增长空间。(此前Peter Smith曾预测加密货币总市值在今年将达到1万亿美元)另外,对于比特币,我还是那句话,非常看好它的发展前景,并且依然持有一部分,相信它的价格会越来越高。

Two-thirds of The Ledger team—including me and Robert Hackett—were in Lisbon, Portugal last week for the massive Web Summit conference, where we spent much of our time talking blockchain and fintech (in between samplings of the city’s delicious egg tarts, pasteis de nata).

I had the opportunity to interview two people who made some of the boldest predictions about cryptocurrency prices over the past year: Tim Draper, the DFJ venture capitalist, who predicted that the Bitcoin price would hit $250,000 by 2022, and Peter Smith, the CEO and cofounder of wallet company Blockchain, who thought the total market value of cryptocurrencies would reach $1 trillion in 2018 (the current figure stands at about $212 billion).

Naturally, I wanted to know if they were standing by their predictions some eleven months into the cryptocurrency bear market, with Bitcoin’s price hovering around $6,400, nearly 70% below its peak.

Here’s how they responded during a panel on Web Summit’s centre stage—plus a few other predictions:

Draper: Well of course! Because there is $86 trillion worth of [fiat] currency out there in the world. We’re talking about getting to about 5% market share to get to $250,000 [per Bitcoin], and that seems like a drop in the bucket. And all we need to really do is make it so Bitcoin can be used to buy Starbucks coffee, and all of a sudden the world just opens up.

Smith: The other side of the prediction was that I expected the crypto markets to cool off for most of the next year….That said, the crypto market is so nascent today and so a quarter of a trillion, a half a trillion, a trillion—it’s still very small relative to the global financial services market….It means that there’s a lot of growth ahead.

WILL THE PRICE OF BITCOIN BE HIGHER OR LOWER IN A YEAR?

Smith: I am still really optimistic about the future of Bitcoin, and still personally allocating into Bitcoin. Higher.

Draper: So my prediction at $250,000 for 2022, maybe 2023 but in that range, is absolutely solid, but I’m not so sure how we’re going to get there, because it’s getting manipulated. A year from now, it’s higher.

ON COINBASE’S FUTURE

Draper: What’s the point of going public? Coinbase should probably stay private for as long as they possibly can….that said, I think Coinbase will be a trillion dollar business.

Smith: My guess is the only crypto companies that will go public are crypto companies that either have a high need of capital—so you’re looking at mining companies—or companies that have a cap table that’s at least 50% investors. I think a lot of those early companies are going to be put under a lot of pressure to go public despite the fact that it won’t make a lot of sense.

ON WHETHER BANKS WILL BUY CRYPTO COMPANIES

Smith: So I’ve talked to these institutions for years now and we work with some of them. The challenge for them is by the time they realize they need to go all in on the strategy, they probably won’t be able to afford one of the large crypto companies.

Draper: I would agree that Goldman [Sachs]—they’re going to be too late to buy these companies. And all they’re going to have is fiat currency to buy the company with. They better start buying Bitcoin if they’re going to try to buy one….If Goldman recognizes that they can only buy Coinbase with Bitcoin and they can’t use that fiat junk, then this won’t work for them and they’re going to have to buy it up and then the price will go up.

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