最有看点的互联网金融门户

最有看点的互联网金融门户
专栏国际资讯基于互联网平台的金融业务

彭博社发布2019年欧洲股票投资建议,支付行业值得关注

专栏国际资讯基于互联网平台的金融业务

彭博社发布2019年欧洲股票投资建议,支付行业值得关注

本文主要介绍欧洲科技、媒体和电信股投资者明年要关注的几大关键话题,包括美中贸易战的爆发点,而重新焕发活力的行业并购也有望推动长期不受市场青睐的行业发展。

今年股市大跌期间,上述三个板块的表现都远远超出了区域基准,媒体股票是斯托克600指数中表现最好的板块之一,仅下跌了2.6%,科技板块下跌7.4%,电信尾盘反弹,下跌幅度为9.7%。斯托克600指数同比下跌11%。

5G网络

2018年表现最佳的欧洲科技股中,诺基亚和爱立信有望明年在西方市场实现5G设备垄断。

正值全球各国进行新一代通信网络计划之时,他们的主要竞争对手华为技术有限公司遭受的政府反对越来越多,部分政府担心其系统可能被中国情报机构利用。华为表示,它愿意尽一切努力向各国政府证明自己值得信赖。

这场斗争将继续占据明年各大媒体的头条,这对诺基亚和爱立信来说非常有利。Mirabaud的分析师Neil Campling本月在一份报告中写道:"美国及其盟友目前正竭尽全力切断中国技术知识产权革命的核心。5G将成为2019年中美残酷的知识产权斗争的中心。与此相比,2018年的关税战几乎可以忽略不计。"

电信交易

今年前九个月欧洲表现最差的电信股在年终跌价期间出现反弹。

他们的高股息收益、低廉的估值和更高的并购前景使该行业在沉寂三年后更具吸引力。

欧洲竞争管理机构对荷兰并购案的有利裁决鼓励了投资者,在12月12日的一份报告中,Macquarie分析师Guy Peddy写道:"2019年开始,对企业并购的期望将激增"。他同时也提到,这并不表示电信业将会变得更健康。

SVM All Europe SRI Fund的联合经理Hugh Cuthbert通过电话表示:"我们现在喜欢电信公司是因为它们相对于市场而言非常便宜,而且我认为我们正处于变革的真正时刻。"随着运营商开始寻求购买新的5G设备,"电信行业应该开始携手合作,特别是在欧洲,以便充分利用规模优势。"

Cuthbert持有Orange SA的股票,他认为这是法国市场并购的受益者,即使它不会直接参与交易。

在法国,并购话题多年来一直备受关注,而在意大利,对Telecom Italia SpA网络部门可能出现拆分的猜测仍然普遍存在。据报道,英国对Telefonica SA O2部门上市期待已久,但直到脱欧后才实现,而Vodafone Group Plc仍在寻求收购Liberty Global Plc近三分之一的股票。

没落的芯片行业

在智能手机扩散时代领跑的半导体股投资者今年纷纷触礁。

去年一些最好的股票今年表现最差,而且可能还会继续下跌。AMS AG生产用于Apple Inc.旗舰产品iPhone的面部识别功能的传感器,2017年公司价值翻了三倍,到今年又下跌了75%。

这是因为中美之间的贸易摩擦在夏季升温,双方都实施了出口关税。再加上对半导体周期已经达到顶峰的担忧,整个行业曾经夸大的估值以及近期的前景下滑,半导体下跌如此迅速也就不足为奇了。

Miton European Opportunities基金的共同经理人Carlos Moreno在电话采访中表示:"我对廉价的苹果供应商没什么兴趣。"

但是,2019年并不是一片惨淡,因为股市大跌使得受苹果或周期性趋势影响较小的股票更具吸引力。Moreno于10月买入设备制造商ASML Holding NV的股票,同时持有另外两家半导体相关股票:真空阀门制造商VAT Group AG和Lem Holding SA,后者为芯片行业提供电子元件。

Moreno表示,他喜欢具有较高或主导市场份额的独立企业,并倾向于购买这些企业的股票。

广告业乌云是否已散尽?

2018年,尽管今年冬奥会和世界杯等事件有所助益,但依赖广告的股票整体情况并不理想。英国广告公司WPP Plc未能停止去年的暴跌,下跌幅度超过三分之一,德国广播公司ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE下跌44%,ITV Plc下跌22%。

出现这种情况的部分原因是客户削减了广告支出,直接转向正不断侵入传统广告公司领域的在线公司或咨询公司。据Magna Global预测,数字广告2019年收入预计达2850亿美元,连续第三年超过电视,进一步巩固其全球最大广告平台的地位。

Bloomberg Intelligence分析师Paul Sweeney和Geetha Ranganathan写道,2019年的广告机构将"无法摆脱导致负面评价日益增多的多种威胁。咨询公司等资金雄厚的非传统买家预计将积极参与企业并购,因为他们希望能增强自身的能力。"

广告公司正努力向投资者证明自己的持久力。在首席执行官Mark Read宣布一项旨在简化公司流程并使其恢复发展的计划之后,WPP上周股价出现了上涨,与Publicis Groupe SA正在恢复的情况相似。

支付行业异军突起

今年金融科技发展迅猛。

Adyen NV是今年最热门的公开上市公司之一,Wirecard AG在德国DAX指数中取代了Commerzbank AG,此外,一些并购也为该行业带来了一些额外的风景。主要问题是支付公司的高增长预期现在是否已定价,或者是否具备更高价值。

"很难看出市场不知道的增值好消息,这也是我们喜欢它们的理由,"SVM的Cuthbert说,"我们现在关注的是其他价值更高的股票。"

以Adyen首次公开募股价格进入的投资者(包括Uber Technologies Inc.和Airbnb Inc.)在这家荷兰支付处理机构中的投资几乎翻了一番。Exane分析师9月份曾预测,Adyen将在明年或2020年最终取代Worldpay Inc成为最大的在线支付服务提供商。

分析师估计,未来几年电子商务将以每年约10%的速度增长,并提供约1.8万亿美元的目标市场,其中由亚马逊公司控制以及较难进入的中国市场所占据的30%份额并不包括在内。

这些都迫使银行密切关注。周二,我们将介绍欧洲金融股的五大关注点,并进一步探讨传统行业参与者如何为金融科技的崛起做准备。

Here's a look at some of next year's biggest themes for investors in European technology, media and telecommunications stocks -- including a flashpoint for the U.S.-China trade war and rejuvenated consolidation hopes boosting an industry long shunned by the market.

All three sectors have fared better than the regional benchmark during this year's stock rout, media stocks being one of the best-performing groups in the Stoxx 600 Index with just a 2.6 percent decline, technology falling 7.4 percent and telecoms mounting a late comeback to pare losses to 9.7 percent. The Stoxx 600 is down 11 percent on the year.

5G Networks

Nokia Oyj and Ericsson AB -- among 2018's best-performing European technology stocks -- could be on track for an effective duopoly next year in the Western markets for 5G equipment.

Their main rival, Huawei Technologies Co., is running into growing opposition from governments worried that its systems could be used by Chinese intelligence, just as countries around the world are planning the next generation of communications networks. Huawei says it's willing to spend and do whatever needed to convince officials it can be trusted.

This battle will continue to make headlines well into next year, to the benefit of the Nordic rivals. "The U.S. and her allies are now doing everything they can to cut the heart of the Chinese technology IP revolution," Neil Campling, an analyst at Mirabaud, wrote in a report this month. "This, 5G, is going to be the epicenter of a bloody IP battle war between China and the U.S. in 2019 -- the 2018 tariffs could seem like a drop in the ocean compared to this."

Telecom Deals

Telecommunications stocks, among the worst performers in Europe in the first nine months of the year, have rallied during the year-end sell-off. Their high dividend yields, cheap valuation and increased merger prospects made the sector that much more attractive after three lean years.

A favorable ruling by European competition authorities on a merger in the Netherlands has encouraged investors that "2019 will kick off with fueled expectations of M&A," Guy Peddy, an analyst at Macquarie, wrote in a note on Dec. 12. But it would be irrational to assume that the telecom business will be healthier, he said.

"We like telcos right now because they're cheap relative to the market but also because I think we're at a real moment of change," Hugh Cuthbert, co-manager of SVM All Europe SRI Fund, said by phone. "The industry should start to converge together, particularly in Europe, in order to take advantage of scale" as carriers look to buy new 5G equipment.

Cuthbert owns Orange SA shares, which he sees as a beneficiary from mergers in the French market, even if it wouldn't directly participate in a deal.

Consolidation has been an on-and-off topic for years in France, while in Italy, speculation of a potential split of Telecom Italia SpA's network unit remains rife. The U.K. may see its share of movement with a long-awaited listing of Telefonica SA's O2 unit, reportedly delayed until after Brexit, and Vodafone Group Plc pursuing its deal to buy almost a third of Liberty Global Plc.

Falling Chips

Investors riding the wave of semiconductor stocks during the age of smartphone proliferation have painfully crashed into the shore this year. Some of last year's best stocks are this year's worst, and may have more declines ahead of them. AMS AG, which makes sensors used for the facial recognition capabilities of Apple Inc.'s flagship iPhones, has slumped 75 percent after tripling in value in 2017.

That came as the trade dispute between the U.S. and China ramped up over the summer, with both sides implementing tariffs on exports. Combine this with worries that the semiconductor cycle has peaked, historically inflated valuations and recent outlook cuts across the industry, and it's no surprise semis have come tumbling down so quickly.

"If you supply Apple and you're cheap, I'm not that interested," Carlos Moreno, co-manager of the Miton European Opportunities fund, said in a phone interview.

It's not all doom and gloom for 2019 however, as the rout has made stocks that are less exposed to Apple or cyclical trends more attractive. Moreno bought equipment maker ASML Holding NV in October and owns two other semi-exposed stocks: vacuum valve maker VAT Group AG and Lem Holding SA, which supplies electrical components to the chip industry.

Moreno said he likes unique businesses with high or dominant market share, and is happy to pay up for them.

Ad Clouds Clearing?

Stocks reliant on advertising struggled in 2018, despite a year that saw a number of events boosting growth, including the Winter Olympics and the World Cup. U.K. advertising company WPP Plc failed to halt last year's plunge and is down by more than a third, German broadcaster ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE has declined 44 percent and ITV Plc has dropped 22 percent.

The struggle is partly a result of clients cutting back on ad spending and going straight to online firms or consultants increasingly encroaching on traditional advertising companies' turf. Digital advertising will solidify its position as the world's biggest ad platform in 2019 with $285 billion, topping TV for the third year in a row, according to forecasts by Magna Global.

Ad agencies in 2019 will be "unable to shake off multiple threats that are contributing to an increasingly negative narrative," Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Paul Sweeney and Geetha Ranganathan write. "Deep-pocketed, non-traditional buyers, including consultancies, are expected to be active in M&A as they look to beef up their capabilities."

Ad companies are trying to convince investors of their staying power. WPP's shares gained last week after Chief Executive Officer Mark Read announced a plan aimed at simplifying the company and returning it to growth, similar to the turnaround under way at Publicis Groupe SA.

Payment Stocks

This has been a very good year for fintech. Adyen NV provided one of the year's hottest public listings, Wirecard AG supplanted Commerzbank AG in the German DAX Index and a number of takeovers delivered some added spice to the sector. The main question is whether the payment companies' lofty growth expectations are now priced in or whether there's more to come.

"It's difficult to see what the incremental good news is that the market doesn't know about, so we like them," SVM's Cuthbert said. "We just see other stocks with better value right now."

Investors who got in at the initial public offering price of Adyen have nearly doubled their money in the Dutch payment processor, which counts Uber Technologies Inc. and Airbnb Inc. among its clients. Adyen is set to overtake Worldpay Inc as the largest online payment-service provider next year or in 2020 at the latest, Exane analysts forecast in September.

The analysts estimate e-commerce is set to grow about 10 percent annually over the next few years, and provides an addressable market of about $1.8 trillion, excluding the combined 30 percent controlled by Amazon Inc. and that belonging to the less-accessible Chinese market.

All of this has forced banks to pay closer attention. On Tuesday, we'll take a look at five things to watch for in European financial stocks, including a further exploration on how traditional industry players are preparing for the rise of fintech.

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