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关于Facebook的四大区块链猜想

Facebook最近过得很艰难,在去年大范围的股市崩盘之前,Facebook的股价就已开始大幅下跌。持续不断的隐私泄露和数据争议动摇了投资者们的信心,而“删除Facebook”运动,也掀起了轩然大波,甚至前facebook用户兼Whatsapp联合创始人Brian Acton在其离职期间,也在推特上发布了同样的消息。如果Facebook的故事想要获得更好的结局,那么其需要改变一些事情。

Facebook与密码货币之间的爱恨情仇,令不少吃瓜群众大跌眼镜,在上一轮密码货币牛市之时,Facebook禁止了所有密码货币广告,这不仅使其错过了不少的广告收入,也引起了很多人的猜疑。然而,当Facebook取消了对密码货币的广告禁令,并创建了自己的区块链小组时,一切都发生了改变。

有一些行动和传言,证实了最近FB总部区块链活动的激增。是真的发生了什么事,还是这一切都只是为了短期提振其股价?让我们看看哪些是可能发生的事情,哪些是绝不可能发生的事。

1、Facebook利用WhatsApp推出一款稳定币,首先瞄准印度市场

这一可能性最初是由彭博社报道的。

Facebook拥有世界上最大的用户群,其如果发行一种密码货币,那么全世界可能会有很多人会去采用。WhatsApp可开始使用类似微信的功能,用户可直接从手机上支付东西,或者向全世界的家人汇款。根据LinkedIn的说法,Facebook目前有40名员工的头衔是与“区块链”相关的。显然关于稳定币的传闻并非空穴来风。

为什么会发生这种情况:即时的用户基础,几乎没有执行风险。稳定币甚至不需要用到区块链,Facebook曾在Facebook Credits上做了类似的事。

为什么这不会发生:他们曾推出过Facebook Credits,却惨遭失败,并于2013年被正式取消。任何稳定币都会像这样,并且也确实没有必要,但我们在区块链行业有很多这样的东西。

可能性:30%

2、Facebook收购Coinbase

这一可能性最初是由《经济学人》报道的。

我们可以肯定的是,曾在Facebook担任Messenger主管的David Marcus,目前他正在负责Facebook的区块链团队。此外,David也曾是Coinbase的董事会成员。最近,Coinbase的估值已达到了80亿美元。Facebook在收购方面有着糟糕的历史,WhatsApp、Oculus和Instagram的创始人,似乎最终与Zuck家族之间的关系都不是很好。

为什么会发生这种情况:正如Morgan Creek创始人Anthony Pompliano所指出的那样,这将加速密码货币的采用,而Coinbase是美国最好的交易所。Coinbase有着良好的合规历史,并与美国监管机构保持良好的沟通,这无疑有助于简化互动。

为什么这不会发生:CoinBase做得很好,而且这家公司非常昂贵。在这些层面上,收购Facebook核心能力之外的公司将是非常危险的,尤其是在目前市场不确定的情况下。另外,Coinbase在关闭了Gab及其创始人的账户后,最近其也遭遇到了审查问题。除此之外,Facebook最近的收购,并没有以最好的条款结束,这似乎是一场伟大的收购案,但我们不会很快看到。

可能性:50%

3、Facebook推出自己的区块链身份识别解决方案

Facebook引领的关键领域之一,是使用Facebook登录API的识别与轻松登录流程。很多区块链项目,如civic和Evernym都在试图解决这一问题。Facebook不仅拥有世界上最大的用户群,其对于其他服务而言,也是最为常用的登录途径,Facebook在区块链身份解决方案方面拥有很大的优势。

为什么会发生这种情况:没有哪个组织比Facebook更擅长做这样的事,而且身份解决方案也是最适合区块链的应用领域之一。应用区块链之后,KYC和登录变得更加容易,这可以扩展到更多的离线服务,如驾驶执照和护照。这是一个非常大的行业,其中没有哪家公司对Facebook的统治地位能够造成威胁。

为什么这不会发生:Facebook并不是拥有公众认知和数据/隐私信任的最佳场所。一年前,这可能是一个伟大的举措,但今天的故事仍然新鲜。货币化模式不像前面提到的应用那样明显,可能市场也没有那么大。

可能性:70%

4、Facebook推出工作量证明密码货币

Facebook拥有世界上最大的用户群,其拥有大量的人力资源。通过研究大量的用户数据,他们可以准确地了解真实的工作和机器人的行为,并帮助带来新版本的有价值的工作量证明。用户可通过正确标记照片、帮助A.I.视觉行业或为翻译软件提供翻译更正来挖掘新币。微任务部队可以为世界提供一种真正分散的货币,每个人都为挖矿业做出贡献。

为什么会发生这种情况:目前没有理由

为什么这不会发生:这种逻辑有太多的缺陷,但它是一个伟大的科幻故事,不是吗?

可能性:0

还有消息称,Facebook正在开发一种用于WhatsApp转账的密码货币。

通过这条线索,你会看到很多人怀疑Facebook是否会做任何事情。一些人表示,他们永远不会使用Facebook推出的任何区块链产品,一些人则认为,这这种举措对于推广区块链而言是非常有利的。

你怎么看?

Facebook has had a rough time lately. Even before the broader market crash began last year, Facebook stock was already significantly down from it’s All Time High of $218. The constant privacy leaks and data controversies have rocked investor confidence and the #deletefacebook movement picked up steam, with even ex-Facebooker and WhatsApp co-founder Brian Acton tweeting the same during his departure. Something needs to change if the Facebook story is going to get a better ending.

There has been a love/hate relationship with Crypto and Facebook. When Facebook banned all crypto ads, it seemed very straightforward that they would not be taking part in the crypto madness of 2017, even if it meant missing out on a healthy revenue source. However, that all changed when they lifted the ban on cryptocurrency ads and also created their own blockchain group.

There have been a few moves and rumors that confirm a recent surge in blockchain activity at FB HQ. Is there something really going on or is it all a ploy in a an attempt to boost short-term stock price? Lets take a look at what is likely to happen, what might happen, and what definetely wont happen.

Facebook launches a Stablecoin using WhatsApp, targetting the Indian market first

This was first reported as a possibility by Bloomberg

Facebook has the largest user-base in the world. Issuing a cryptocurrency would bring about a huge push towards adoption throughout the world. WhatsApp could start to get WeChat like features, where users could pay for things directly from their phones or send money to their family around the world. Facebook currently has 40 employees with the word blockchain in their title according to LinkedIn. Apparently sources are saying that

Why this would happen: Instant user base and little to no execution risk. Stablecoins don’t even need to be on a blockchain and Facebook has done something similar when they had Facebook Credits

Why this wont happen: They HAD Facebook Credits. And it failed miserably, officially cancelled in 2013. Any StableCoin would resemble this and there really is no need for it, but we’ve got plenty of that around the blockchain space.

Likelihood: 3/10

Facebook Acquires Coinbase

This was first reported as a possibility by the Economist

What we know for sure is that David Marcus, who used to Head up Messenger at Facebook, is now in charge of the Blockchain team at Facebook. He used to be on the board at Coinbase and he used to work at PayPal. Coinbase was recently valued at $8Billion, and this was even during the downturn in the crypto market. Facebook has had a bad history with acquisitions, with the founders of WhatsApp, Oculus, and Instagram all appearing to not have enjoyed their time at the House of Zuck.

Why this would happen: As Anthony Pompliano points out, it would accelerate the adoption of cryptocurrency and Coinbase is the best retail on-ramp there is in the US. Coinbase has a great history of being compliant and in good standing with US regulators which would definitely help streamline the interation. Plus they already have the white and blue theme.

Why this wont happen: Coinbase is doing really well, and they are expensive. An acquisition outside of Facebook’s core competency would be very risky at these levels, especially with the uncertainty of the market as it is today. Plus Coinbase has recently had their own issues with censorship after shutting down the accounts of Gab and it’s founder. Add to that that their recent acquisitions havent ended on the greatest terms and this seems like a great match we wont see anytime soon.

Likelihood: 5/10

Facebook starts there own Identification Solution for Blockchain

One of the key areas that Facebook leads in is identification and easy sign-in processes with the Facebook login API. Plenty of blockchain projects like Civic and Evernym are tackling this problem. With not only the world’s largest user-base but also the most used sign-in process for other services, Facebook is in a unique position to take the lead in blockchain identity solutions.

Why this would happen: No one is better at doing this than Facebook is and it’s an area that most agree fits nicely into a blockchain solution. It’s necessary and it needs the blockchain. KYC and login could become even easier, and this could extend into more offline services like Driver’s License and Passports. It’s a large industry with little competition to Facebook’s dominance.

Why this wont happen: Facebook isn’t in the best place with public perception and data/privacy trust. This might have been a great move a year ago, but today the stories are still fresh. The monetization model isn’t as apparent as the previously mentioned opportunities and probably not as big.

Likelihood: 7/10

Facebook launches a Proof-of-Work coin

With the largest user-base in the world, Facebook has alot of manpower at their disposal. By studying gigantic amounts of user data, they can figure out exactly what real work looks like and what a bot acts like, helping bring a new version of Proof-Of-Valuable-Work. Users could mine coins by labelling photos correctly, helping the A.I. vision industry, or provide corrections to translations for translation software. The micro task army can support a truly decentralized currency for the world where everyone contributes to mining.

Why this would happen: I don’t know

Why this wont happen: There are way too many flaws in this logic, but it’s a great sci-fi story isn’t it? I hope you were entertained with it as much as I was in writing it

Likelihood: 0/10

What does BitcoinTalk think:

Facebook Is Developing a Cryptocurrency for WhatsApp Transfers, Sources Say

Going through the thread you’ll see alot of skepticism that Facebook will do anything, let alone something that would be accepted by this crypto-savvy crowd. A few people say they would never use a Facebook-anything-chain. Some think it will be great in driving adoption.

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