最有看点的互联网金融门户

最有看点的互联网金融门户
国际资讯

2019年CES召开在即,8大趋势值得关注

每年的一月份,会有超过15万人前往拉斯维加斯参加一年一度的消费者电子展(Consumer Electronics Show,后文简称CES)。

它由消费者技术协会(Consumer Technology Association)举办,是世界上最大的技术贸易展之一。

CES中,将会有各种各种新颖或怪异的电子设备,构成一个看向未来的万花筒:

闪烁的智能灯、看起来像液体的显示器、盘旋的无人机、瑜伽手机、无人驾驶汽车、新奇的无线协议和无形技术,所有的这些都宣称,会改善我们的生活,让生活变得更美好。

这是沉迷于电子产品的人的超级碗。

但是,在CES上展示的产品,已经不再像以前那样,并不仅仅是为沉迷于电子产品的人展示的。

现在,科技产品无处不在。

我们每天上下班的时候都会带着它;在厨房和起居室里和它交谈;晚上把它带到床上。

科技产品的定义已经不再局限于主板和电路,而是更多地在于它们所提供的连接和数据共享的迂回循环。(一个词,孩子:平台。)

2018年,我们与科技的关系,及科技对全球社会的影响成为焦点。 这意味着,任何这种规模的科技组合,都有可能影响到科技的未来。

但这并不意味着,我们在CES上看到的所有东西都会产生巨大的影响。也并不是我们看到的所有东西都会被交付。

恰恰相反:在拉斯维加斯首次亮相的许多产品很有可能不会在2019年上市,或者永远不会上市。

尽管它有很多的不确定性,CES还是越来越大。今年,预计将有多达18万人参观近300万平方英尺的科技展览。以下是《连线》杂志认为的最值得期待的8个主题:

机器人繁荣

就在几年前,在“智障”的设备上添加一个低能耗蓝牙芯片和一个 Wi-Fi模组,就足以让它在CES的“智能技术”类别中占据一席之地。

现在,智能取决于这些科技产品是否具有感知能力,是否具有预测能力,不管这些计算是在硬件上还是在云端进行。

在 CES 上,“人工智能驱动”一词的用法比其他任何地方都要宽松,几乎总是一种营销策略,无论产品是否受到人工智能的影响。

从自动驾驶汽车到OLED电视机,再到墙上的节能插座等等,都在兜售某种形式的人工智能、机器学习或深度学习。

5G洗牌

2019年,应该是5G超越炒作成为现实的一年。

因此,像AT&T和Verizon这样的无线运营商,像三星这样的手机制造商,以及像高通这样的移动芯片制造商,都会利用CES平台,发表更多关于下一代超高速蜂窝网络将如何从根本上改变我们的科技生活的声明,这是有意义的。

5G对互联汽车行业也有巨大的影响,因为它有可能让汽车实时“交流”。

请记住,尽管5G手机和设备今年将开始出货,5G无线网络要到2020年才能普及,第一批推出的手机和设备不会提供高达每秒10G的数据传输速度。

未来交通

说到汽车,CES在汽车技术发布方面仍然与北美国际车展竞争。今年,预计将有11家主要汽车制造商出现在拉斯维加斯上,高于去年的9家。

尽管会有一些概念车(比如现代汽车推出的步行概念车) ,在汽车制造商看来,CES仍然不是展示“新金属”的好地方。

相反,我们应该着重关注自动驾驶能力 ,以及它们与精密芯片、传感器、显示器和语音技术供应商的合作伙伴关系上——任何能让消费者相信传统汽车制造商正在加速走向未来的技术。

此外,还要注意电动滑板车和其他交通工具,它们暗示着无障碍、无车通勤。

K数上升

就在你以为自己已经达到了4K 速度的时候——你已经拥有了便宜的4K 流媒体设备、可靠的宽带连接,以及可以观看的真正的4K 电影——8K已经到来。

像三星、索尼、 LG、东芝和夏普这样的电视制造商预计会在今年的 CES 上展示8K 显示器。 LG 甚至提前宣布了世界上第一款 OLED 8K 显示器。

8K 显示器的分辨率为7680 * 4320像素(总分辨率超过3300万像素) ,这意味着它们的展示效果将会非常突出。

但不利的一面是,这些电视机会非常昂贵,而且几乎没有任何 8K 内容可供观看。

屏幕折叠

有疯狂的高分辨率显示器,还有你可以折叠并塞进你的口袋显示器,这是你一直想做的事情。

几年来,像三星、索尼、联想和 LG 这样的公司一直在研究各种可弯曲显示的原型机。

CES一直是展示这些技术的完美场所。

也许我们还能再次看到去年11月首次发布的三星可折叠 Galay 概念智能手机;柔宇科技可能会把它的新款7.8英寸折叠手机 FlexPai 带到CES上;LG会再次展示折叠电视屏幕等等。

但这些设备今年是否会上市是另一个问题。

语音交流

在过去的几年里,亚马逊和谷歌帮助 CES 保持了它的相关性,这不仅是因为这些公司在整个拉斯维加斯都有大量的物理设备,还因为它们的语音助手已经集成到了成千上万个小工具中。

现在有超过20000个智能设备兼容 Alexa,超过10000个可以兼容Google Assistant。

毫无疑问,CES 2019将会有各种嘈杂的声控设备,从冰箱到音响系统,再到家里的智能灯、可穿戴设备和家庭外的汽车。

(事实证明,如果在现有产品中添加另一个语音助手,可以称之它为“新的”。)

此外,关于语音技术的问题不在于它是否会出现,而在于今年它是否会变得更加无缝和不那么尴尬。

健康领域大爆发

如果我们不下定决心以某种方式改善自己,就不会是新的一年。

在这方面,还有什么比一个能吐出健康数据的蓝牙身体转换器是更好的灵丹妙药呢?

这些年来,CES 的数字健康版块发展很快。消费者技术协会表示,今年将有近120家健康科技公司参展,比2018年的98家有所增加。

除了普通的 GPS 运动手表,可疑的睡眠设备,还有很有希望的助听器解决方案。

同时,快消品公司也开始量化自我。

宝洁公司的玉兰油将展示一款新的皮肤小玩意,而潘婷品牌将以某种方式利用人工智能来改善你的头发,欧莱雅将展示新的与健康相关的传感器等等。

一家名为 Lumen 的公司表示,它将通过向你展示你燃烧碳水化合物的速度,并向你提供营养指导,帮助你解决新陈代谢的问题。

所有人都关注平台和隐私

CES仍然是一个硬件展览展,是关于未来几个月科技产业走向的一种杂乱无章的宣言。但是,2018年,主宰我们生活中大部分科技体验的软件公司,都经历了动荡的一年。

今年的CES反映了这种转变;除了构成展会核心的硬件公司之外,CES还有各种运营平台、制作软件和媒体内容的公司。

今年的日程安排,包括一个政策制定者小组讨论后GDPR世界中的美国隐私法规,以及一个Twitter主办的活动,讨论该公司计划如何让其服务更具对话性。

当然,通过这些关于技术平台的分阶段对话可能解决不了什么问题。但关键是,即使是 CES 背后狂热的贸易组织也不能再忽视科技的问题。

由于一切都是互联的,我们今年在展会上看到的自动驾驶汽车和8K 智能电视将在不久的将来成为数据共享(和广告)平台。

这就是说,硬件和软件现在已经不可避免地纠缠在一起了,这意味着从一副耳机到你的新洗碗机,所有的东西都伴随着关于数据共享和安全性的问题。

EVERY JANUARY, MORE than 150,000 people make a pilgrimage to Las Vegas for the annual event known as CES. Organized by the Consumer Technology Association, CES is one of the world’s largest technology trade shows. It’s an exhilarating and nauseating display of gadgetry, a kaleidoscope eye into what’s to come: blinking smart lights, liquid-looking displays, hovering drones, yogic phones, driver-free vehicles, newfangled wireless protocols, and intangible technologies that all come with the promise of making life better. It’s the Super Bowl for nerds.

Except the tech being shown at CES really isn’t just for nerds. Not anymore. Technology is everywhere. We carry it with us on our daily commutes; we talk to it in our kitchens and living rooms; we take it to bed at night. Products are now defined less by their motherboards and circuitry and more by the circuitous loop of connectedness and data-sharing they enable. (One word, kid: Platforms.) In 2018, our relationships with technology and its impact on global society came into sharp focus. Which means any assembly of tech this size has the potential to impact all of our tech futures.

Not everything we see at CES will have a huge impact. Not everything we see will even ship. Quite the opposite: There’s a good chance that many of the wares debuted next week in Las Vegas won’t go on sale in 2019, or ever. But despite the hand-waviness of it all, somehow CES keeps getting bigger. This year, as many as 180,000 people are expected to roam nearly 3 million square feet of tech exhibitions. WIRED will be there covering the biggest news from the show. Here are the themes we’re expecting to emerge.

Bot Boom

Just a few years ago, adding a low-energy Bluetooth chip and a Wi-Fi radio to your dumb gadget was enough to earn it a place in the “smart tech” category at CES. Now, smarts are defined by how sentient, how predictive our personal technology can be, whether those calculations are happening on the hardware or in the cloud. And at CES more than anywhere else, the term “AI-powered” is used loosely and is almost always a marketing ploy, whether a product is widely impacted by AI or not. Expect to see everything from self-driving vehicles to OLED televisions to energy-saving wall outlets all touting some form of artificial intelligence, machine learning, or deep learning.

The 5G Shuffle

2019 is supposed to be the year that 5G transcends hype and becomes a reality. So it makes sense that wireless carriers like AT&T and Verizon, handset makers like Samsung, and mobile chip makers like Qualcomm will take advantage of the CES stage to make more proclamations about how the next generation of ultra-fast cell networks will fundamentally change our tech lives. 5G also has huge implications for the connected auto industry, because of its potential to let vehicles “talk” to one another in real time. Just keep in mind that, while 5G-ready handsets and devices will start shipping this year, 5G wireless networks won’t be available nationwide until 2020, and the first ones to roll out won’t offer the 10-gigabytes-per-second data speeds that make the technology so alluring.

Future Transport

Speaking of cars, CES is still locked in competition with the North American International Auto Show when it comes to auto tech announcements. This year, 11 major car manufacturers are expected to show up in Vegas, up from nine last year. But while there will undoubtedly be some concept cars (like a car that walks on legs from Hyundai), automakers still don’t really view CES as a place to show off new metal. Instead, expect a big focus on self-driving abilities (again) and partnerships with sophisticated chip, sensor, display, and voice technology vendors—anything to convince consumers that legacy car manufacturers are speeding ahead into the future. Also, watch out for zippy scooters and other transportation gear that hint at hassle-free, carless commutes.

Filling the K Hole

Just when you thought you were up to speed on 4K—you’ve got that sweet Vizio, that cheap 4K streaming stick, a solid broadband connection, and actual 4K movies to watch—8K has arrived to spin you into another seven-year cycle of living room inadequacy. TV manufacturers like Samsung, Sony, LG, Toshiba, and Sharp are widely expected to show off 8K displays at CES this year. LG has even pre-announced what the company claims is the world’s first OLED 8K display. 8K displays have a resolution of 7,680 by 4,320 pixels (that’s more than 33 million pixels total) which means they’re really really ridiculously good-looking. On the downside, these sets will be crazy expensive and difficult to find, and there's hardly any 8K content out there to watch.

Curves Ahead

There are insanely high-resolution displays, and then there are displays that you can fold and tuck into your back pocket, because that’s a thing you've always wanted to do. For several years now, companies like Samsung, Sony, Lenovo, and LG have teased a variety of flexible-display prototypes. CES, with all its oddity and aversion to humanity, has always been the perfect place to showcase such technologies. Will we get another glimpse of Samsung’s folding Galaxy smartphone concept that was first revealed in November? Will Chinese display tech company Royole bring the FlexPai, its new 7.8-inch folding phone, to the big show? Will LG demo its fold-up TV screen again? Maybe; whether any of those devices ship this year is another question.

So Much Talk

For the past couple years Amazon and Google have helped CES maintain its relevance; not only because of the companies’ massive physical installations throughout Vegas, but because their voice assistants have been integrated into thousands of gadgets. There are now over 20,000 smart devices compatible with Alexa, and over 10,000 that work with Google Assistant. CES 2019 will undoubtedly be a noisy cacophony of voice-controlled devices, ranging from refrigerators to sound systems to smart lights in the home, to wearables and cars outside of the home. (Turns out that if you add another voice assistant an existing product, you can call it “new.”) The question around voice technology, though, isn’t so much whether it will have a presence; the question is whether it will grow more seamless and less awkward this year.

Enhance!

It wouldn’t be the new year if we weren’t resolved to improve ourselves in some way, and what better panacea for all our ills than a Bluetooth body dongle that spits out health data? The digital health section has grown a lot at CES over the years. Nearly 120 health tech exhibitors will be at the show this year, up from 98 in 2018, the CTA says. Expect the usual GPS running watches, questionable sleep gadgets, and promising hearing aid solutions. But also: consumer packaged goods companies are starting to capitalize on the quantified self. Procter & Gamble’s Olay will be showing off a new skin gadget, while its Pantene brand will somehow utilize AI to improve your hair. L’Oreal will demo new health-related sensors, and a company called Lumen says it will help you hack your metabolism by showing you how quickly you're torching carbs and offering you nutritional guidance. And you thought all you had to do to improve your well-being in 2019 was delete your Facebook account.

All Eyes on Platforms—and Privacy

CES is still largely a hardware exhibition, a kind of disorganized manifesto on where the tech industry is headed in the coming months. But this year it’s coming on the heels of a tumultuous year for the software companies that dictate most of the tech experiences in our lives. The show’s programming reflects this shift; in addition to the hardware companies that make up the core of the convention, CES also hosts a wide variety of companies that run platforms, make software, and produce media. This year’s schedule includes a panel of policy makers discussing American privacy regulations in a post-GDPR world, as well as a Twitter-hosted event about how the company plans to make its service more conversational.

Of course, little is likely to be solved through these staged conversations about tech platforms, but the point is that even the enthusiastic trade organization behind CES can no longer ignore tech’s problems. And since everything is connected, the autonomous vehicles and 8K smart TVs we’re seeing at the show this year will act as data-sharing (and advertising) platforms in the not-so-distant future. That’s all a way of saying that hardware and software are all irrevocably intertwined now, which means everything from a pair of headphones to your new dishwasher comes with questions about data-sharing and security.

We consumers should be asking those questions, anyway. Let’s hope CES 2019 points towards a year of more answers.

用微信扫描可以分享至好友和朋友圈

扫描二维码或搜索微信号“iweiyangx”
关注未央网官方微信公众号,获取互联网金融领域前沿资讯。

发表评论

发表评论

您的评论提交后会进行审核,审核通过的留言会展示在下方留言区域,请耐心等待。

评论

您的个人信息不会被公开,请放心填写! 标记为的是必填项

取消

版权所有 © 清华大学五道口金融学院互联网金融实验室 | 京ICP备17044750号-1